Tech Tuesday: Two AI Specialists Place Wagers on the Economic Impact of AI

There was a time when ice was "harvested" from lakes and glaciers up in the Rockies (or in Ancient Rome, mined from the Alps), stored in warehouses and distributed through retail channels. Naturally everything changed with the advent of electricity. Ice boxes became obsolete, replaced by refrigerators.

Likewise there was a time when buggy whip manufacturers made decent money, and the horse trade was strong.

Alas, as the cartoon above makes apparent, nothing stays as it was forever.

This weekend I received an email from Calum Chace with the following message:

Robert Atkinson and I have made the 749th Long Bet shown below (and online here). Robert is the founder of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a Washington-based think tank.

Robert’s Claim
With the rise of AI and robotics many now claim that these technologies will improve exponentially and in so doing destroy tens of millions of jobs, leading to mass unemployment and the need for Universal Basic Income. I argue that these technologies are no different than past technology waves and to the extent they boost productivity that will create offsetting spending and investment, leading to offsetting job creation, with no appreciable increase in joblessness.

Calum's Response
AI and robotics are different to past technology waves. Past rounds of automation have mostly been mechanisation; now we will see cognitive automation. Machines can already drive cars better than humans, and their story is just beginning: they will increasingly do many of the tasks we do in our jobs cheaper, better and faster than we can. Unlike us, they are improving at an exponential rate, so that in ten years they will be 128 times more powerful, in 20 years 8,000 times, and in 30 years (if the exponential growth holds that long) a million times. We are unlikely to see the full impact of technological unemployment by 2035, but it should be appreciable. Our job now, of course, is to make sure that an economy which is post-jobs for many or most people is a great economy, and that everyone thrives. The way to do that may well be the Star Trek economy.

Note from Calum: I would like to be able to credit the person who created the excellent image (at the top of this page.) If you know who it is (or if it is you!) please do let me know.

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Here is the "billboard" that came with the email.  The link takes you to an official site where predictions of all sorts are being documented, along with wagers.

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This public documentation of predictions is quite fascinating, especially for futurists. Predictions include how the market will perform to when a computer will pass the "reality imitation game." I doubt anyone can really bet on the prediction about when humans will take over the galaxy, but many of the predictions do look serious.

I'm assuming Chace and Atkinson plan to be here in 2035, when one will have to make good on the bet. At stake, in the bet, is $400, which with inflation may be worth significantly less.

The bet reminds me of another famous bet. Anton Chekov wrote a story called The Bet in which there is a 15 year time frame. With two million dollars at stake there's much more on the line. It's one of my favorite short stories, which I shared here on my blog in 2009.

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What's your take on the economic impact of AI? The U.S. economy is currently robust, having purportedly added 15 million jobs in 2017. What are the changes high tech will bring as we step forward in time? Who do you believe will win this bet between Mr. Chace and Mr. Atkinson.