Is a Radical Geopolitical Realignment Happening Under Our Noses?

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Over the past few years I've read a number of articles about the coming demise of America's global supremacy. By way of contrast, about 10 years ago I read a book that argued that America would be the ruling global power for the next 100 years. (I believe it was called The Next 100 Years.) Having read a couple other books about the rapid decline of Great Britain and Western Europe in the first half of the last century, I am reluctant to make those kinds of assumptions. On Wall Street they say, "The Trend is your friend." Until it isn't.

Just out of curiosity I decided to ask ChatGPT what its thoughts were on this matter. I asked, "Is a radical geopolitical realignment underway that is hastening the demise of American global supremacy?"

ChatGPT began with its usual disclaimer. "As an AI language model, I cannot predict the future or provide a definite answer to this question. However, I can provide some insights based on the available information."

Here are the points this AI bot presented.

The international system is always in a state of flux, and it is not uncommon for countries to rise and fall in terms of global power and influence. There is no doubt that the global geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant changes, with emerging powers such as China and India, as well as resurgent powers such as Russia, challenging the traditional dominance of the United States in various ways.

Some experts argue that the current international system is undergoing a "power transition" or a "power shift," in which the relative power of various states is shifting. This shift is driven by a range of factors, including economic growth, military power, technological advancement, and changing patterns of global governance.

However, the extent to which these changes will lead to the "demise of American global supremacy" remains a subject of debate. While the United States faces significant challenges from rising powers, it continues to possess significant economic, military, and cultural power, as well as a powerful network of alliances and partnerships around the world. Additionally, the international system is highly complex, and it is difficult to predict how various factors will interact and shape the future.

In conclusion, while a radical geopolitical realignment is certainly underway, it is difficult to predict its ultimate impact on American global supremacy. The future will depend on a range of factors, including the actions and strategies of various states, as well as broader global trends and developments.

In 2003 Noam Chomsky published a book titled Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance. U.S. hegemony refers to the United States' position as the dominant global power, with significant influence over the international system, including political, economic, and military spheres. Chomsky suggests that we have not achieved or maintained our leadership or dominance in an admirable way. Rather, it is maintained through a combination of coercion, persuasion, and consent.

In Hegemony or Survival Chomsky argues that the socio-economic elite who control the United States have pursued an "Imperial Grand Strategy" since the end of World War II to maintain global dominance. In doing so the US has repeatedly shown a total disregard for democracy and human rights, in stark contrast to the US government's professed support for those values. This policy has been responsible for a range of negative consequences, including increased global instability, the erosion of civil liberties, and the perpetuation of poverty and inequality around the world.

Chomsky lays out numerous examples, which make him a thorn in the side for those who look at our country through rose-colored glasses. Chomsky argues that the United States has pursued this policy of global dominance through a variety of means, including military force, economic coercion, and political manipulation. He also argues that the United States has been able to maintain its dominance through a system of propaganda and control of the media. 

The book also explores the roots of American foreign policy in historical events such as the Cold War and the Vietnam War, and examines the role of corporations and the military-industrial complex in shaping American foreign policy. 

Chomsky concludes that the pursuit of global dominance is not only morally wrong, but also counterproductive, as it creates more enemies and perpetuates the very problems it seeks to solve. He argues that a more cooperative and equitable approach to foreign policy is needed if the world is to address the urgent challenges it faces, including poverty, climate change, and nuclear proliferation.

Getting back to the main question, is a radical geopolitical realignment happening? It is my opinion that the manner in which this country has dealt with the rest of the world has resulted in a loss of respect for the US. As a result, we have made many enemies, and (worse) many of our friends (allies) are weary of having to kowtow to our perpetual demands. If there were an alternative sandbox to play in, they'd leave us in an instant.

Though Pat Buchanan is at the opposite end of the political spectrum from Chomsky, his 1998 book The Great Betrayal made a pointed observation regarding our role in the world. The full title is The Great Betrayal: How American Sovereignty and Social Justice Are Being Sacrificed to the Gods of the Global Economy. When I read this book two decades ago, one key message came through loud and clear. Empires rise and empires fall. And they can fall quickly.

If you know your history, the British Empire was the dominant force in global affairs for 300 years. For three centuries the ruled the high seas and thereby played a significant role in all things related to global commerce. As the 20th century unfolded, this would all change. In fifty years, Britain became a shadow of itself, a former empire gone bust.

Buchanan's book is a warning to American's that it can also happen here, and it can happen faster than you might imagine. 

It's ironic that US newspapers are printing stories about the International Criminal Court having an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin for war crimes without mentioning that the same tribunal sought to have US leaders and the CIA arrested for war crimes in the Middle East. Neither Russia or China are part of the ICC, nor is the US.

As for the geopolitical realignment question, when I re-asked the question, ChatGPT's conclusion was yes, "a radical geopolitical realignment is underway which is hastening the demise of American global supremacy." 

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