Marketing Matters: Lessons from the Disruption

Originally published in Business North, June 2020

One of the first things I thought of when the quarantine/lockdown struck was Andy Grove’s Only the Paranoid Survive. The introductory blurb for this late 90s bestseller begins like this: “In Only the Paranoid Survive, Grove reveals his strategy for measuring the nightmare moment every leader dreads — when massive change occurs and a company must, virtually overnight, adapt or fall by the wayside — in a new way.”

The concept from Grove’s book that I remember most was the 10X concept. In one of the chapters he detail how there are a variety of forces that have a bearing on one’s business in one way or another. Cost of raw materials, cash flow, government regulations, legal matters, consumer trends, competition, etc. Grove asks, “What happens when one of these variables unexpectedly changes by a ten-fold degree?”

The full title of the book is Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points That Challenge Every Company. The book is an insightful and candid account of a challenging period in the history of Intel, the company Andy Grove founded and led for many years.

We never know from which angle that 10X tsunami will come. We do know that adjustments will have to be made if we don’t want to be swept away.

Grove’s purpose was to make us aware that although we can be slammed by the unexpected, we can actually exploit these events to come out stronger and better.

Current Events
The Coronavirus Disruption is precisely the kind of 10X tidal wave that Andy Grove warned us about. You don’t see it coming. You can’t even determine what its full impact will be. And until the fog lifts, it waits to be seen all the things we will have learned from this.

One surprising lesson was discovering how quickly people were able to adjust from working at the office to working from home. In our contemporary hyperconnected world it seems to have happened quickly, and certainly would have been different in the 70s or 80s.

When it’s over many companies will be evaluating whether their people were more productive or less. It could change the way companies work. Already, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has announced that Twitter employees can work from home forever. Fewer meetings, more time to make calls and get real work done. Less commuting also gives people more time each day.

Working from home can have distractions, however, and for some there’s value in getting out of the house.

Impacts on Marketing

A few weeks back I caught one of AimClear’s weekly Facebook presentations in which founder Marty Weintraub and Susan Wenograd discussed how crisis changes consumer behavior, specifically with regard to this currant pandemic. I found it fascinating because instead of having the media interpret data, Weintraub and Wenograd showed us the data that’s available to all. We were free to draw our own conclusions, though they also highlighted features that a novice might not catch. The webinar was entertaining, something akin to Siskel & Ebert, except their banter involved explorations of marketing data as opposed to Hollywood filmdom.

What’s going on? Weintraub’s answer: Google can show you.

Follow the Data
As every marketer knows, the world is awash in data. Google has made it its business to organize this information and make it useful, in a variety of ways. Google Trends presents a raw cross-section of actual search requests that people make every day on Google. The info is categorized and aggregated by whatever demo size you’d like, from global to local baskets.

According to Weintraub, “Marketers use Trends to measure trending search interest for keywords and related keywords. Nimble marketers can use Trends to:
• Spot rises and losses in brand interest for their brands and competitors
• Note fluctuations in keywords related to: shopping, information, and/or interests
• Craft sales and competitive strategies
• Explain corollary trends in site traffic and revenue
• Categorize and subcategorize search interest
• Understand geographical distribution of search interest”

For example, if you go to Google Trends (Google it if you don’t know the URL) and type in the words “home delivery” in the Search bar, you’ll see a relatively flat line for the past year until March when it dramatically broke to the upside.

Another one is “curbside pickup.” How often have you Googled that in the past 20 years? It’s spiked big time these past two months. Do you deliver or do curbside pickup? Is it on your website?

There are a variety of ways local marketers can use this information. And best of all the tool is free. (To learn more about how to use Google Trends as a marketing tool, ask Google.)

Should You Pull Back on Advertising?

You miss a lot when you don't stay current with what's happening. This woman
missed the Industrial Revolution, returned just in time for the Internet.
She is now the brains behind the Google Algorithm.

According to the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) nearly 90% of all large multinationals have deferred new ad campaigns while more than half are holding back for six months or more. Is this a good move for you though?

It is generally agreed that brands should not “go dark” during the crisis. In fact, history has a number of interesting anecdotes regarding gains and losses in market share during recessions.

During the Great Depression Post cereals cut their advertising while Kellogg’s doubled down and even introduced a new product, Rice Krispies. Kellogg’s profits increased by 30% and the company overtook their rival in market share.

In the 1990-91 recession McDonald’s cut its ad spend, confident of its leadership in the fast food space it dominated. Golden arches were everywhere. Maybe they thought this was enough of a reminder to keep lovin’ it. Taco Bell and Pizza Hut took a different approach, pushing aggressive campaigns that respectively earned them 41% and 60% increases in sales. McDonald’s sales decreased by 28%.

Summing Up
As Thomas Paine famously wrote, “These are the times that try men’s souls.” Arguments can be found to support nearly any action you take. If there’s ever been a time to step up our game, this is it. Only the paranoid survive.

# # # #

Large Multinationals Tighten Ad Spend; WFA press release, 13 May 2020. https://wfanet.org/knowledge/item/2020/05/13/Large-multinationals-tighten-ad-spend-squeeze-according-to-WFA-Covid-19-Response-Tracker

Night of the Living Dead Foreshadowed Our COVID-19 Lockdown

"A ragtag group of Pennsylvanians barricade themselves in an old farmhouse to remain safe from a bloodthirsty, flesh-eating breed of monsters who are ravaging the East Coast of the United States."

Yes, it's campy. But this low budget 1968 zombie film by George Romero has a surprisingly large and passionate fanbase. With a budget just over 100K, the film grossed 12 million dollars domestic and 18 million in international theaters.

It's the kind of late night horror fare that Ghoulardi would have loved to deliver on his Friday Night Shock Theater in Cleveland. Even if you can't take the zombies seriously, the film does have some seriously interesting features.

The storyline is basic. Johnny and Barbra do their annual visit to their father's grave to place flowers there when they are suddenly set upon by cannibalistic zombies. Johnny, who was making fun of his sister for being scared, ends up himself being killed. Barbra runs for her life.

Chase scenes are always dramatic but in this case the pursuit is relentless. She manages to find a farmhouse and manages to get inside. No one is home it seems. Then Ben shows up, looking to fill up his vehicle with gas. Aware that the house is being surrounded by zombies, he keeps them at bay with fire, and proceeds to board up the doors and windows.

Before social media, this was the best way to find out what was happening
in the outside world. Duane Jones as Ben.

Don't look now, but there goes the neighborhood.

The big reveal is that there are five people hiding in a "safe room" in the basement, a family of three and another couple They emerge and a series of conflicts begin as regards the best course of action against this deadly coronavirus, I mean, zombie infestation.

And there it is. A lockdown. A quarantine. And a lot of tension due to their various opinions on how to respond to the life and death situation.

Here are some excerpts from imdb.com

The Shining, The Exorcist and The Omen are all films that owe some of their stylistic approach to this film. This is the film that re-wrote the rules of the horror genre as it went along, whilst acting as both social critique and fond homage to 'The Birds' as well.

And...

This is "the" film that changed the way zombie films were created - more horrifying than ever before. Almost all zombie films that came after this one were patterned after this movie. "Night of the Living Dead" is the most iconic zombie film ever made.

Much of the world is in lockdown and quarantine and while it's true that DUIs are down, domestic violence is up. Way up. Just as Night of the Living Dead seems to have foretold.

* * * *

Here's another 60's throwback... or at least a parody of one. Revised for our contemporary Safe Zone focused modern times... Have a party.

You can catch it when you're at the grocery store
You can catch it off the handle on a door
You can catch it from a friend that's droppin' by
You can catch it like a baseball from the sky
I know that you feel so alone
But everybody Must Stay Home.

* * * *

The Message Here:
Still in lockdown? Make music. Don't have fights. 
We really don't want to see anyone getting killed.

* * * *

Related Link

Night of the Living Dead in the Time of Confinement and the Coronavirus

(Note the nod to Love in the Time of Cholera)

Quarantines and Updike's Four Life Forces

Model of the Tabernacle in Imna Park, Israel

You must stay at the entrance to the tent of meeting day and night for seven days and do what the Lord requires, so you will not die; for that is what I have been commanded.”--Leviticus 8:35

I once wanted to write a one-act play about the above passage from Leviticus 8. It is one sentence long but my imagination entered into it because just as Aaron had four sons who had just been consecrated for the priesthood, so also my own parents had four boys. And when I saw how Aaron and his sons were to be quarantined for seven days at the entrance of the Tabernacle (after a whole bunch of consecrations had been carried out) it made me wonder... What did they talk about for seven days?

I never did complete the play, though I'd written a portion of it. To some extent it was autobiographical in that I imagined the varied personality components that my brothers and I share and don't share. Each of us is distinct from the others, so the conversations this family had during the course of seven days in lock up could have easily been very interesting.

The first day, I projected that the conversations revolved around the meaning of all these things that they had just experienced, from the Exodus from Egypt to Moses on Mount Horeb for 40 days where he met God and received the ten commandments... and what did all those details regarding the ritual sacrifices mean, and why had their father Aaron been selected for this important office of the priesthood.

Day two would likely be more of the same, but as the days wore on I imagined (In my script) that these men talked about other things as well, including stories from childhood, stories about growing up. Maybe they got their father telling stories they's never heard before about when he grew up, and stories about Moses, who had been raised in Pharaoh's house and what led to Moses fleeing Egypt and how leadership is created. Who knows?

In my skit, though, as the week progressed there were also conflicts as the personalities grated. Time began to pass slowly and that week began to feel like a year. By the fifth or sixth day things come to a head and things change. There is a breaking that takes place, and the family ends up discovering a new kind of honesty, love, acceptance, mercy and such that it had never known before. This level of intimacy became possible only after they had been quarantined for a week in a small space where there were no distractions or diversions.

That skit was mentally mapped out and partially written perhaps 30 years ago, and I found it unearthed by this week's quarantine orders. Unless we take time and make time, most of us are so busy and distracted most of the time that we don't really know one another, including the people in our own families. One of the positive's of the Covid-19 pandemic may be how it forces us into some reflective thinking about who we are, and perhaps some deeper levels of communication with on another.

John Updike's Four Life Forces
IN THE WEE HOURS last night I thought again about John Updike's four life forces. It seemed like a relevant time to share this blog post that I wrote in 2012.

John Updike once suggested that there are four life forces: Love, Habit, Time and Boredom. This morning's ramble (reference to my daily blogging) is the product of Habit. I'm not sure I have that much to say, and the proper thing to do when you have nothing to say is to shut your mouth. But then, I digress.

When Updike speaks of love he is referring to passion. Passion is the driver that impels us to make sacrifices in order to accomplish great things. Passion is what makes Olympians, not simply skill. There are plenty of pianists with skill, but it's passion that sets apart the cream from the rest. It's passion that leads them to make the sacrifices necessary to sharpen their virtuosity.

Time is another one of those amazing things that has been endlessly debated and dissected. What is time really?

Wikipedia explains it this way: Time is the continuing sequence of events occurring in apparently irreversible succession from the past through the present to the future, a measure of the durations and frequencies of events and the intervals between them. Time has long been a major subject of study in religion, philosophy, and science, but defining it in a manner applicable to all fields without circularity has consistently eluded scholars.

Like life itself, we all know what it is but don't always do well at explaining it. That doesn't stop people from trying. Here is an interesting article from Wired magazine titled What Is Time? One Physicist Hunts for the Ultimate Theory. The article is an interview with Sean Carroll, a theoretical physicist at Caltech. He begins by noting something we all have noticed because it is obvious. The future is different from the past. We remember the past but we don't remember the future. Why? 

There was an album we listened to a long time ago called It's A Beautiful Day and it had a song on it about time. At the time I did not know that the most memorable line was actually a quote from Henry Van Dyke. "Time is too slow for those who wait, too swift for those who fear, too long for those who grieve, too short for those who rejoice, but for those who love, time is eternity."

In short, time is perceived differently based on our circumstances. Hence there are some who propose ideas like the notion that time does not exist, it is simply a perception.

The first point, "Time is too slow for those who wait," brings to mind a scene from Immortal Beloved, a film about Beethoven. Beethoven (Gary Oldman) is on his way to a hotel for a tryst with a woman he loves. But it's a rainy night and the wheels on his horse-drawn carriage get stuck in the mud. Time is slipping away and the painful strains of the second movement of his Seventh Symphony fill the theater with his anguish. Eventually, the woman becomes impatient with waiting, and leaves.

Boredom is another of those interesting forces that surprised me when Updike placed it in this list, but it's a real force. Bertrand Russell once observed, "Boredom is... a vital problem for the moralist, since half the sins of mankind are caused by the fear of it." What strikes me is that last part of this statement. People really do fear boredom. And this may be why some people fear death. What if there really is an afterlife and it was boring? Eternal boredom would truly be hell.

* * * *
It's this last life force that our current quarantine brought to mind. I wonder how well we'd all be doing if we did not have Internet connections and television sets or iPhones and were truly quarantined from one another. Would our actions be primarily driven by efforts to stave off boredom? Or would we motivated by the Passion driver, seeking to fulfill our purpose in being?

Hang in there, friends. And don't forget to wash your hands.

Related Links
The Three Phases of Time

If you have ever read the Bible from start to finish, then you will likely recall that there are certain sections that can be exceedingly tedious. I'm thinking here of certain genealogical sections and the minutia detailed in certain places like the Books of Numbers and Leviticus. When I got bogged down in these two books, I went to a blind friend and borrowed a couple vinyl records of Alexander Scorby reading the Bible. By listening, and he kept reading non-stop, I made it through without falling asleep. Maybe not the best way, but that's how I did it the first time through. 


Photo at the top of page available through Creative Commons. Attribution details here.