Price's Law as Applied to Crime and Safety

Price's Law (also known as Price's Square Root Law) is a principle in productivity and scientometrics that describes extreme inequality in output within groups. (Keep reading and you'll understand how that plays out.)

The concept was proposed by a British physicist and historian of science named Derek J. de Solla Price in the 1960s, who originally observed patterns in scientific publishing. It states that in any given field, approximately half of all published research is produced by the square root of the total number of authors working in that domain.

For example, if a scientific field has 100 researchers, then √100 = 10 researchers will account for roughly 50% of all papers published. In a company of 10,000 employees, about 100 people (√10,000) will produce half the total output or value.

This makes Price's Law more extreme than the better-known Pareto Principle (commonly referred to as the 80/20 rule). As group size grows, the proportion of top producers shrinks dramatically relative to the whole.

Why It Matters

Price's Law shows how productivity follows a power-law distribution rather than a normal one. A small elite drives the majority of results in research, sales teams, creative fields, companies, and even open-source projects. While controversial and not universally precise, it explains why superstar performers, top scientists, or key employees often contribute disproportionately.

Understanding Price's Law encourages organizations to identify, nurture, and retain high-impact talent — and individuals to strive to be among that critical square-root group.

New Applications

Stumbling across Price's Law got me thinking about an application I'd not considered before: fighting crime. Is it possible that if there a x number of violent criminals in a city, that the square root of that number is committing half the violent crimes? If this were the case, an overtaxed police force could make a big impact by narrowing their focus on these "most productive" criminals. Are there 100 such violent felons in your medium-sized city? This would suggest that ten are doing half of the violent crime, and your city could become much safer by placing them behind bars. And maybe there are only 25. This would suggest five are the really bad dudes that should be behind bars.

Corollary: The square root of all criminals does half of all crime.

I haven't tested this theory yet, but I've an inkling that there's something to it.

What do you think?