What Kinds of Jobs Will Be Lost Due to AI?

"Fight or Flight" -- AI generated

One of the biggest concerns we keep hearing about AI pertains to the impact it will have on the labor force. I first began thinking seriously about this in 2016 after reading Calum Chace's Surviving AI. Chace called Artificial Intelligence (AI) the world's most powerful technology, predicting that it will rapidly transform the world of work, and that many jobs will be at risk of being lost to automation. 

According to a 2019 report by the McKinsey Global Institute, up to 800 million jobs could be lost to automation by 2030. The thing that is striking about this is that seven years have passed (since 2016) and little has been actually done other than the periodic story in the media. (If I'm wrong, please let me know in an email or the comments.)

The jobs most at risk of automation are those that are repetitive, predictable, and easily codified. This includes jobs in manufacturing, transportation, customer service, and data entry. For example, self-driving vehicles could replace truck drivers, while AI-powered chatbots could replace customer service representatives.

Not all jobs, however, are equally at risk. Jobs that require creativity, problem-solving, and social interaction are less likely to be automated. This includes jobs in healthcare, education, and the arts. For example, AI can be used to help doctors diagnose diseases, but it is unlikely to replace doctors entirely.

The impact of AI on employment will vary from country to country. Countries with a strong manufacturing sector are likely to be more affected than countries with a strong service sector. Countries with a well-developed social safety net will be better able to cope with the job losses caused by automation.

So what can we do?

Theoretically there are a number of things that can be done to mitigate the negative impact of AI on employment. Governments can invest in education and training to help workers develop the skills they need for the jobs of the future. Businesses can adopt AI in a way that creates new jobs and opportunities. And workers can be proactive about upskilling and reskilling to stay ahead of the curve.

Writers like Chace, on the other hand, say that no amount of retraining will be sufficient to address the layoffs that are coming. The need is for government leaders to get serious about societal safety nets. This is the argument for Universal Basic Income (UBI).

The optimist's view is that although AI will present challenges, but it is also an opportunity. By taking steps to prepare for the future of work, we can ensure that everyone benefits from the technological revolution.

Forty years ago, when I was a painting contractor in the Twin Cities, I read an article that presented a glowing picture of a future where everyone has a personal robot to take care of their mundane needs. As I was reading this article I looked out the window and saw a man dumpster diving. I thought to myself, "That man will not have a personal robot."

Automation eliminated massive numbers of factory jobs. AI will be coming after white color jobs. As AI continues to develop, it's likely that even more jobs will be automated. But AI is also creating new jobs and it's possible to adapt to the changing job market, if we're aware and thinking about it. 

What do you think about these things?

What Are the Biggest Threats to Small Business?

Small businesses are an essential part of the fabric of our society, and their success is critical to the success of our economy and our communities. I'd like to suggest that small businesses represent the heart of America's free markets. Small businesses are where people put their entrepreneurial dreams into action. 

Here are some of the benefits of small businesses:

1. Job creation: Small businesses are significant contributors to job creation. They create job opportunities for the local community, providing employment for people of different skill levels and backgrounds. According to the Small Business Administration (SBA), small businesses created 1.5 million jobs in 2019 alone.
2. Economic growth: Small businesses are vital to the growth of the economy. They contribute to the GDP and promote economic growth by generating income and creating wealth. They also stimulate competition, which helps drive innovation and reduce prices.
3. Local community development: Small businesses play a crucial role in the development of local communities. They help to build and sustain vibrant neighborhoods by providing goods and services that meet the needs of the local population. You can see this happening in Duluth's Lincoln Park District. Small businesses also tend to reinvest profits back into the community, which helps to support other local businesses.
4. Entrepreneurship: Small businesses are a platform for entrepreneurship. They provide opportunities for individuals to start and grow their businesses, pursue their passions, and achieve their dreams. Small businesses also help to create a diverse and dynamic business environment, which encourages innovation and creativity.
5. Resilience: Small businesses are generally more agile and adaptable than large corporations, which makes them more resilient in times of economic uncertainty like today. They can respond more quickly to changes in market conditions and customer needs, which enables them to stay competitive and survive challenging times.

On the other hand, small businesses also face a unique set of challenges and risks that can pose significant threats to their success. Some of the biggest threats to small businesses include:

1. Limited resources: Small businesses typically have limited financial and human resources, which can make it difficult to compete with larger players in the market. 
2. Economic downturns: Small businesses are particularly vulnerable to economic downturns as they may not have the financial reserves to weather a prolonged period of low sales and revenue. 
3. Increased competition: Small businesses may face competition from larger, established businesses or new entrants in the market, which can put pressure on their profitability.
4. Difficulty accessing financing: Small businesses may struggle to secure financing due to their size, lack of collateral, or limited credit history, which can limit their ability to invest in growth or ride out tough times. The current economic turbulence is especially problematic for companies dealing with debt. Uncertainty about interest rates makes it difficult to accurately plan ahead.
5. Cybersecurity threats: Small businesses are often seen as easy targets by cybercriminals, who may exploit vulnerabilities in their systems and steal sensitive data or money. This and most of the other challenges are directly related to not having the necessary funding to stay current. 
6. Regulatory compliance: Small businesses may struggle to keep up with changing regulations and compliance requirements, which can result in costly fines and legal issues. You may not be able to afford having an HR pro on staff, but there are HR pros out there whom you can lean on for this nightmarish facet of your business. Locally, Stacy Johnson of Audacity HR is a capable "go to" for this and other matters.
7. Staffing challenges: Small businesses may have difficulty attracting and retaining employee talent, which can impact their ability to grow and compete. 
8. Cash flow issues: Small businesses may face cash flow issues due to late payments from customers, inventory management, or other unexpected expenses.

These are just a few examples of threats to small businesses. One more to consider: life insurance. If your business is a partnership, what happens if one of the partners dies unexpectedly. How much will it set you back? Don't assume everything will be hunky dory because you're all young. 

On a related note, if the past three years has taught us anything it's that we can't take tomorrow for granted. Remember, it's not what happens to you, but how you react that counts.

To overcome these challenges, small business owners must develop sound strategies, stay agile and adaptable, and seek out support and resources as needed. If you're a business owner, I hope you've found something useful here.

EdNote: Story created with assistance from ChatGPT.

Illustrations by the author.

Tech Tuesday: The Future of Jobs (Part One)

Photo by Franck V. on Unsplash

I recently visited a website from which I downloaded the executive summary of a report by the World Economic Forum titled The Future of Jobs and Skills.

Many of us naturally think about the future. What will the future be like for cities has been on my mind a lot this past week. With the destruction of property in the Twin Cities and elsewhere, it's fairly easy to wonder how this will impact jobs in these places. The pandemic has already stressed and stretched many business categories, most notably the restaurant trade.

The WEF report focuses on the jobs landscape a little further down the road, and I would like to briefly highlight those aspects of the jobs market. "By one popular estimate," the authors state, "65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist."

It's easy to imagine this being true, even if we have a harder time imagining what those jobs will look like.

How many Baby Boomers graduated high school in the Sixties imagining they might be doing Search Engine Optimization or Social Media Marketing one day. Even if you heard these expressions, you'd probably be scratching your head wondering how to prepare for such a thing.

The report goes on to say, "In such a rapidly evolving employment landscape, the ability to anticipate and prepare for future skills requirements, job content and the aggregate effect on employment is increasingly critical for businesses, governments and individuals in order to fully seize the opportunities presented by these trends—and to mitigate undesirable outcomes."

Even the railroad industry ain't what it used to be.

That's a phrase the strikes a chord for me, "to mitigate undesirable outcomes." I can't predict what those future jobs will be called, but many of them will require thinking, lifelong learning and knowing how to read. Dropping out of school is not a great way to prepare for an unknown future.

There are a variety of drivers of tomorrow's changes, many of which have been developing for decades. The WEF report continues:

We are today at the beginning of a Fourth Industrial Revolution. Developments in previously disjointed fields such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing and genetics and biotechnology are all building on and amplifying one another. Smart systems—homes, factories, farms, grids or entire cities—will help tackle problems ranging from supply chain management to climate change.

Ten or fifteen years ago the first rumblings of the Internet of Things (IoT) were getting publicized beyond the geek culture where it had been first envisioned. How much this will evolve is uncertain, but it's already happening more than you probably realize.

So, do they have any examples of new careers that will emerge? Of course.

One area of expertise for which there will be a dire need is data analytics. Computers generate reams of data faster than you can blink. I read, for example, that self-driving cars must process a million or more data points per second in order to get you where you want to go. I've seen reports an inch thick pertaining to data generated by an online ad campaign. Acquiring the information is easy, wise use of the data less so.

The future of architectural design will knock your socks off.*

The saying, "Information is power" is only half true if you don't know how to read the tea leaves. Too often people have blind spots, and when it comes to political situations you can get tangled in other peoples' agendas. Then there's that other problem: we don't know what we don't know.

A second category of future jobs is just an extension of a current one. There will always be a need for good salespeople. As industries become more complex, more automated or technical, these salespeople will have to remain committed to staying current or they will fall into irrelevance. By this I mean one will need to be continuously doing one's homework in order to explain what they are selling to business or government clients and consumers, in terms decision makers and customers understand.

There are other jobs (like sales) that will utilize existing skills as a foundation that can be built on. Writers who develop specialized knowledge and stay current will always have value. Spell-checkers and Grammarly are useful to a point, but when you write about wind turbine lubricants or advances in filtration efficiency due to advances in nanotechnology, you can't just make up a bunch of buzzwords and hope to get by.

My advice... Whatever field you're in, keep adding to your tool kit. Knowledge, experience, and applied critical thinking are the coins of the realm.

Related Links
Surviving AI by Calum Chace Is a Must Read for Those Who Plan to Be Here in the Future
A Visit with Futurist Calum Chace on his new book The Economic Singularity
*Illustration courtesy AEC Design Center

Where the Jobs Are

His opening line in the contact email he sent me was, "I'm so glad that someone else reads books." He'd found Graham Greene in my profile, one of his favorites. He then asked if I read Steinbeck. A yes, naturally. We corresponded. Turns out, his job is to persuade bloggers to link to his company's site.

Serge Lavange is an account manager for Jooble, a job search firm with offices around the world. Its head offices are in Kiev, Ukraine and Limassol, Cyprus. The concept behind the company is to be a type of Google site except that whereas Google helps feed you information but anything and everything, Jooble feeds you info on jobs.

Well, I decided I'd go for the ride if he let me ask a few questions.

EN: What is the current perception of where the best jobs are?
Serge: It depends on the location and of course on a company you search the job at. But if you take a look worldwide market we can tell you that IT specialists are in high demand right now mostly in every company, even if it is not IT related company. Let us explain what we mean here. Internet lets its roots to almost every industry and most of companies are trying to expand their activity on-line (social networks, on-line shops, on-line advertising, etc). Of course engineer related jobs are also in demand.

EN: I get the feeling more people are moving outside of their countries to other places than ever before. Are there stats on this? Where are the places more people are moving to?
Serge: There is a saying: “It is good to be there, where you cannot be right now.” According to statistics we see that permanent migration into OECD countries fell by about 7% in 2009 to 4.3 million people. It is the second consecutive year of decline after a decade of growth.

EN: If you leave your country to go somewhere else, where are the easiest places to find employment?
Serge: Every country has its peculiarities and we cannot say that it is easy to find a job somewhere. Unless you try of course. But we think it all depends on the candidate’s qualification. If you have a Bachelor’s or Master’s Degree and have fresh ideas in your head then you may feel free to apply for a job to any company you dream about. It may be Google, Apple or any other company. You may reach your goals if you work hard and of course believe in what you do.

EN: How big is Jooble as a company and how long have they been around?
Serge: There are 50+ people working at Jooble. The company was founded in 2007 with offices located in Ukraine and Cyprus. Now Jooble operates in 44+ countries and we permanently develop our services to other countries.

If you would like to find a job in other locations you may try to search jobs in:

Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Chilie, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Italy, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Japan, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia , South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Turkey , Venezuela, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States

EdNote: Serge wasn't sure whether this information would be relevant to this blog, but he stated that my articles were interesting and easy to read. That's the second time I've heard that in a week. Serge especially liked my post "Moneyball Worth More Than the Price of Admission." Maybe you would, too.