When the New York Times Said Manned Flight Was a Million Years Away, How Quickly It Was Proved Wrong

One of my favorite themes over the years has been the unreliability of experts. You can read a batch of examples here in my 2007 blog post "Experts don't always know what they are talking about." Most of these examples are quite amusing. Would that all proclamations were  harmless and amusing.

Da Vinci's design for a flying machine.

Nevertheless, I just learned a new one about human flight, and I think you'll find this entertaining. 

In October 1903, the New York Times published one of the most famously wrong editorials in journalistic history. Titled “Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly,” it confidently declared that a practical flying machine would require “the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years.”

No doubt many people were thinking about manned flight in those days, in part stimulated by Jules Verne's fanciful 1886 sci-fi novel Robur the Conqueror (a.k.a. The Clipper of the Clouds) which featured a massive, propeller-driven heavier-than-air machine named the Albatross. 

Four centuries earlier Leonardo Da Vinci contemplated the possibilities of manned flight, so this was not an entirely new idea. What was new were the advances in technology that had been emerging over time.

So back to our story.

At the time, the most respected scientific authority on aviation in America was Samuel Pierpont Langley, Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution. Langley had conducted promising experiments with unmanned, steam-powered models. Impressed, the U.S. War Department gave him roughly $50,000 — a huge sum in 1903 — plus institutional backing from the Smithsonian to build a manned “Aerodrome.”

With Langley's prestige, funding, and the full weight of America’s scientific establishment behind it, the Aerodome was launched from a houseboat on the Potomac River. It promptly plunged into the water like a “handful of mortar,” as one observer put it. 

The pilot, Charles Manly, survived thanks in part to a cork jacket. (You can see one of these at Corktown here in Duluth, I believe.)

The New York Times jumped on the fiasco just two days later with its October 9 editorial. Langley’s very public failure was proof that powered human flight was essentially impossible in any reasonable timeframe. If the best-funded, most credentialed expert in the country couldn’t do it, the editorial implied, then who could?

Langley may have been humiliated, but to his credit he didn'quit. On December 8, 1903 Langley tried again. This time the Aerodrome collapsed during launch, its wings crumpling as it tumbled back into the river. Another high-profile disaster.

Kitty Hawk, December 17, 1903

Nine days later, on December 17, 1903, if you remember your history, at a windswept beach in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, two brothers from Dayton, Ohio, achieved what the experts had declared would take millions of years. Orville and Wilbur Wright — self-taught bicycle mechanics with no formal scientific training, no government grants, and only a few hundred dollars of their own money — flew the first powered, controlled, sustained flight of a heavier-than-air machine.

They completed four flights that day. The longest lasted 59 seconds and covered 852 feet. They built their own wind tunnel, designed a lightweight gasoline engine, and solved critical problems of control through relentless experimentation and iteration. They didn't have elite credentials or massive institutional funding. Just a "can do" persistence and practical ingenuity.

At its core, it’s a story about how elites and credentialed “experts” can mistake their own failures — or the limits of their approach — for the permanent boundaries of human possibility.

Langley had resources and prestige. The Wrights had grit and a willingness to question conventional wisdom. One approach crashed (literally). The other soared. Or sort of soared. For sure, they got off the ground and that was a start. As I write these words Artemis II is two-thirds of the way to the moon with four astronauts sharing the adventure of a lifetime. [Trivia: Did you know that Artemis, in Greek mythology, was the twin sister of Apollo?]

I'm surprised at how quickly the NYTimes rushed to declare the death of the dream (of manned flight) after the establishment’s golden boy failed, then had to watch these two nobodies from Ohio prove them wrong.

Lesson: Whenever you hear confident pronouncements from prestigious institutions that something is “impossible,” “decades away,” or “requires massive top-down funding and expertise,” remember the Wright brothers.

My main point remains: experts, even when earnest, don't always know what they are talking about. Add to this the reality that there are a lot of people with agendas who use the media to parade their "experts" in the service of those agendas. Don't be suckered. Learn to discern.

Miscellaneous Trivia Related to History and Geography

What is it that makes Trivia so interesting? Over 100 million copies of Trivial Pursuit have been sold worldwide in 17 countries. That certainly says something about our interest in trivia.

Here's some trivia I pulled together for you to noodle around and stick in your pocket for a suitable time in the future.

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1. The unicorn has been Scotland’s national animal since the 15th century, chosen by King James I for its strength and purity in Celtic mythology. It appears on the Scottish royal coat of arms, often chained to symbolize the taming of wild power. This mythical creature reflects Scotland’s love for folklore.

2. Australia, an island continent, only has 27 million residents. If you include Oceana, which includes Papua New Guinea, there are 45 million people in this section of the world. The only continent with fewer people is Antarctica. 

3. Vicksburg’s Confederate commander, General John C. Pemberton, surrendered on July 4, 1863, coincidentally the same day as the Union victory at Gettysburg.

4. Three presidents have died on July 4. Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on Independence Day in 1826. James Monroe died on that date five years later.

5. On December 17, 1903, at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, the Wright Brothers’ first successful powered flight in the Flyer I lasted just 12 seconds and covered only 120 feet—shorter than the length of a modern football field

6. St. Louis County, Minnesota, has a total area of approximately 6,860 square miles, with 6,247 square miles of land and about 613 square miles of water. This Northern Minnesota county is larger than Connecticut (5,543 square miles), Delaware (1,949 square miles),  Rhode Island (1,034 square miles).  It's also twice as large as Puerto Rico and 100 times larger than the District of Columbia.

7. Contrary to popular belief, Napoleon Bonaparte wasn’t unusually short. He stood at 5 feet 2 inches in French units, which translates to about 5 feet 7 inches in modern measurements, average for his time. The myth likely stemmed from British propaganda cartoons exaggerating his stature and confusion between French and English measurement systems.

8. Lake Superior, the largest of the Great Lakes, contains about 2,900 cubic miles of water, enough to cover North and South America in a foot of water. Its vast volume accounts for roughly 10% of the planet’s accessible surface freshwater, making it a critical global resource despite its remote location.

9. The Lake Superior region known as the “Graveyard of the Great Lakes” has seen over 550 shipwrecks, including the famous Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975. Storms, unpredictable currents, and hidden shoals make the lake notoriously treacherous, with some areas like Whitefish Point claiming numerous vessels in mysterious circumstances.

10. U.S. President William McKinley was shot by anarchist Leon Czolgosz at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, New York, dying eight days later on September 14. Theodore Roosevelt, at age 42, became the youngest U.S. president, ushering in the Progressive Era with reforms like trust-busting and conservation policies. A lesser-known detail: Czolgosz’s execution by electric chair on October 29 prompted the Secret Service to formalize presidential protection, a role it hadn’t officially held before. This assassination shifted U.S. political dynamics and amplified America’s global presence