It's Super Bowl Sunday: Is the NFL Rigged?

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As most of us are aware, money is a big part of what this event is all about. In basic economic terms, it's a matter of supply and demand. There is only one Super Bowl per year and the stadiums have a finite number of seats. As a result, tickets come at premium prices and for this year's game the average ticket costs $6,800. If you think that's a lot, last year the average ticket cost $10,000. No kidding. It was in Los Angeles, and the home team was there on the field for that one.

Then there's all the gambling revenue generated. Over-unders and all kinds of other bets can be placed. Since much of this is black market activity, it's hard to say exactly how much money is riding on the various outcomes, but one estimate is that a half billion dollars is on the line tonight.

Then you have the money pouring in from companies that spend millions on advertising at this once-a-year event. The cost for a 30 second spot seems to rise with every passing season, now in the range of five or six million dollar. Advertisers who play this game do so because there's a massive captive audience.

Advertisers do more than just advertise during the game. Most have integrated campaigns that incorporate other forms of advertising and marketing including digital and social media, product placements and branded content. The big guys can easily spend tens of millions around this singular event.

Which leads some people to believe that the NFL has a vested interest in delivering a close game that keeps viewers watching all the way to the end so that advertisers get their money's worth and return again next year.

Sometimes it seems like a lot of games hinge on a penalty call by the refs, or the lack of one. Defenders of NFL integrity correctly point out that it's only one play, so it shouldn't really matter all that much. On the other hand, a single play can shift the game's momentum in a big way. How many times have we seen a fumble, interception or missed field goal spook the crowd and turn the momentum in favor of the opposing team? Those controversial calls by the refs can produce a sea change in a tight game. 

Conspiracy theorists are quick to jump all over those bad calls, and with the megaphone of social media the doubt gets carried off like dandelion seeds whistling in the wind. Controversial calls make many people skeptical about the integrity of the league. There's also the perception that the NFL favors certain teams or players.

None of this has been proven, and the NFL bends over backward to preserve the perception that everything's above board. The problem is, when it looks like you're trying extra hard to look clean, cynics jump on this as proof that you have something to hide. 

Alas. People will believe what they want to believe, no matter what anyone says.

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As for this evening's game, it's only the 13th time the two number one seeds have come through the playoffs unscathed. Which of these will step up and dismantle the other?  Let's wait and see.

Photo: Creative Commons. Attribution: Andy Morffew