Friday, December 15, 2023

Is Inflation Getting Better or Worse?

My father-in-law did an amazing job of downsizing. Over a period of years he moved from a farmhouse with two barns, greenhouse and five or so other out-buildings to a two-room apartment. Much of what he was unable to get rid of through rummage sales became firewood. Some of the items, primarily those with sentimental value, ended up in our garage or basement. Included in these things was a stack of old Life magazines from the 19940s and 50s. 

Looking through these magazines was both entertaining and educational. This was a slice of our history. The photos and stories featured the events that shaped our generation. The weekly magazine had influence.

They also had advertising, aimed at both selling products and  to some extent also shaping behavior. One of the ads that made an impression on me featured an executive seated behind a desk with a big smile on his face, feet up on top of the desk as he leaned back in his chair. The reason he was happy was because he was retiring. Not only that, but he would be getting a Social Security check for $147 a month for the rest of his life.

That was the headline. "For the rest of my life I will be getting $147 a month!"

This image came to mind as I read this week's announcement regarding consumer prices and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to the powers that be, CPI inflation has dropped to 3.1%

And yet, even though the CPI this month is down, there are certainly a lot of things that seem disconcerting by way of contrast. When you look at the inflation rates on this list of basic necessities, does it make you wonder where thy pull their numbers from?

1. Car Insurance Inflation: 19.2% 2. Transportation Inflation: 10.1% 3. Car Repair Inflation: 8.5% 4. Rent Inflation: 6.9% 5. Homeowner Inflation: 6.7% 6. Food Away From Home Inflation: 5.3% 7. Electricity Inflation: 3.4%

A lot of people seem to think that when the CPI index drops, inflation is down. In reality, prices are still rising and affordability for the have nots is getting worse.

Because of the rising costs of raw materials, the cost for new housing has also risen. As a result, supply is not keeping up with demand. (Which makes me curious regarding where those 11 million unauthorized immigrants are living these days.)

That guy in the Life magazine ad is smiling, but if he lives a couple decades after retiring he won't see that $147-a-month check won't do all that much. Nowadays, it wouldn't cover your food, let alone rent, car, gas, car insurance, utilities and all the rest.

Alas, let the good times roll.

1 comment:

LEWagner said...

During the high-inflation years of the 1970's, my maternal Grandma Hoad used to angrily complain about inflation, and said there was no reason that prices should go up and up and up.
But I thought that as long as wages also went up (which they mostly were, in the 1970's), inflation was understandable, and I couldn't understand what was terrible or surprising about it. It seemed natural, to me.
But I've since found out that before the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, prices had pretty much stayed the same for many decades, so my Grandma was into her 20's before the prices started going up.
Here in Laos, the inflation is very high. A sandwich that cost 80,000 kip in May 2022 now costs 130,000 kip ... and the price will probably go up again soon. A bag of fresh baguettes that cost 120,000 in May 2022 now costs 200,000.
It's not so bad for me, because the exchange rate between US dollar and Lao kip keeps changing in favor of the dollar, as well.
But Lao people's wages are not going up. So there are almost no students at all in the colleges, and it looks as though this will be the last year for the college I work for. And huge numbers of Lao people are leaving the country to look for work elsewhere.

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