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| The red areas have been identified as "at risk." MISO is a single grid from Canada to Louisiana. Click to enlarge. |
This past month, for the second year in a row, NERC announced that the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) energy grid is at risk due to several factors:
Increasing Demand and Reduced Supply: MISO faces challenges with rising peak electricity demand forecasts coupled with a reduction in available generation capacity. This imbalance has been exacerbated by the retirement of traditional power plants (like coal and nuclear) without sufficient replacement by new resources, particularly dispatchable ones that can be relied upon during peak demand.
Extreme Weather Conditions: The grid is particularly vulnerable during extreme weather events, especially cold snaps in winter and heatwaves in summer, which can spike demand and simultaneously reduce power generation capabilities due to issues like frozen coal piles, natural gas supply constraints, or reduced output from weather-dependent renewable sources like wind and solar. (Add to this mix the issue of the intermittent nature of solar and wind, which only generate power when the sun shines and/or the wind blows.)
Operational Challenges: The transition to a resource mix that includes a higher proportion of variable energy resources (like wind and solar) brings with it operational complexities. These resources are less predictable and can lead to energy shortages when demand peaks do not align with their availability. NERC's assessments have highlighted how this shift necessitates a more nuanced approach to energy availability analysis beyond just reserve margins.
Capacity Shortfalls: NERC's reports have indicated specific capacity shortfalls in MISO, where under certain scenarios, the available energy might not meet the peak demand, especially if normal conditions are disrupted by higher-than-expected outages or demand.
These concerns are part of NERC's broader effort to alert stakeholders about potential reliability risks, urging for proactive measures in energy policy, resource planning, and infrastructure development to mitigate these risks. The warnings serve to push for better preparation and possibly reconsideration of the pace at which traditional, dispatchable generation is being retired in favor of renewables without adequate backup or storage solutions.
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When I lived in Puerto Rico for a year in 1979-80 routine blackouts and brownouts were customary, due to aging and overburdened infrastructure. The temperature is 70 to 90 degrees year 'round so we didn't suffer much when the power went out. Things will be very different should these kinds of events occur in the middle of a Northland winter causing pipes to freeze.
What mystifies me is the adamant opposition to nuclear energy. Our fleet of nuclear-powered submarines has been safely active for 70 years.
Fact: On average more people die from Christmas tree lights each year than died in Three Mile Island and the Fukushima disaster combined. (Three Mile Island: 0; Fukushima: 1.) The tsunami that struck the Fukushima reactor in Japan killed 20,000. These numbers are a testament to its safety, not its danger.
Earlier this week the power grid collapsed in Puerto Rico. Fortunately the lights were on again in a few days. It was fifteen below zero here this morning. As the wealthiest nation on earth, we really ought to be able to keep our lights on.
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