The Four Grand Transitions That Created the World We Live In Today

I've always admired people who have the ability to take complex issues and make them simple to understand. This is doubly enjoyable/useful when people with a comprehensive grasp of history do the hard work of identifying events or trends and assembling them in a manner that creates new insights that any average Joe or Josephine can grasp. 

One such thinker who specializes in this sort of thing is Vaclav Smil, a Czech-Canadian scientist, policy analyst and Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada. I myself became aware of him because of his reputation as one of the world's leading experts on the history of energy.

In 2021 Smil wrote a book titled Grand Transitions: How the Modern World Was Made. In it, he examines the transitions that structure our modern word. What made the modern world work? For Smil, it all boils down to four "grand transitions" of civilizations: (1) population, (2) agriculture, (3) energy and (4) economics. The cumulative effect of these transitions has transformed the way we live. 

When a society goes through all four of the major changes—like improvements in health, farming, energy, and the economy—it ends up in a very different place: people live longer, there's plenty of food (and a lot gets wasted), energy use goes way up, and there are more job and business opportunities. But not everyone in the world has caught up—hundreds of millions of people still live without many of these advances. 

Vaclav Smil looks at how all these big changes connect. He says it's more important than ever to share the good stuff of modern life, especially with the growing gap between rich and poor. But doing that while also trying to protect the planet is a tough balancing act. The next big challenge—what he calls the fifth transition—is dealing with climate change, shrinking resources, and disappearing wildlife. Whether we succeed at this will decide if all the progress we've made actually lasts.

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When I read the Four Transitions cited by Smil, it brought to mind Niall Ferguson's fire alarm Why Civilizations Fail. Ferguson in his book cites four things that together produced the rise of Western Civilization. They were:
1. Democracy -- the consent of the governed.
2. Capitalism -- and the vibrant society healthy markets produce.
3. Rule of law -- secure property rights, fairness and (in theory) equality.
4. Civil society -- how we treat one another.

The lists differ, but both author express a serious concern about the cracks in our foundations today, and more importantly, the ever widening gap between haves and have nots. 

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the direction things are going.  What do you think?

Related Links

Why Civilizations Fail: Niall Ferguson Sounds A Wake-Up Call
Grand Transitions: How the modern world was made

Niall Ferguson on the Breakdown of the Rule of Law