Showing posts with label Calum Chace. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Calum Chace. Show all posts

Friday, April 10, 2026

The Future of Work in the Age of Automation: Proceedings of a Workshop on Norbert Wiener’s 21st Century Legacy

"If you're not thinking about AI, you're not thinking." ~ Chris Meyer

Norbert Wiener (1894–1964), has been famously cited as the mathematician who founded the field of cybernetics with the publication in 1948 of his seminal book Cybernetics: Or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine. His work was the direct intellectual precursor to modern AI and automation. 


Wiener was hardly optimistic about the effects of AI on the future of work. He repeatedly warned that unchecked automation would cause massive unemployment, treat machines as the “precise economic equivalent of slave labor,” and force human workers to accept slave-like economic conditions.


In 2023, an IEEE Workshop on Norbert Wiener’s legacy examined how AI and automation are reshaping the future of work. Drawing on Wiener’s warnings about job displacement and the ethical duties of technologists, participants critiqued overly optimistic “technological determinism” narratives that ignore social costs. 


Discussions highlighted qualitative losses — reduced meaning, creativity, and human connection in work — alongside risks of growing inequality and environmental harm. The workshop called for interdisciplinary collaboration, stronger governance, and a shift toward human-centered values like dignity and flourishing, rather than pure efficiency or profit, to ensure technology serves society rather than disrupts it.


One of the paricipants of this workshop was Pedro H. Albuquerque (Senior Member, IEEE.)  Born in Brazil he obtained an Electrical Engineering degree from the University of Brasilia, and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Our paths crossed while he was teaching economics at UMD here in Duluth approximately two decades ago and became part of the philosophy club we hosted in our home.

             

He is now a Research Fellow with the Aix-Marseille School of Economics in France and a Cofounder of ACCELERATION & ADAPTATION. He has published articles in a large number of scientific journals and has presented at leading international conferences, in fields as varied as occupational science, engineering, economics, finance, and social studies. His areas of interest are technology studies, economics, occupational science, sustainability, and finance. 


Over the years Albuquerque has been a gracious resource, and the increasing adoption of AI I've been leaning in to hear his cautionary thoughts on this topic. What follows are a batch of short answers to long questions pertaining to the workshop on Norbert Wiener of which he was a member/participant.


EN: Norbert Wiener emphasized the moral duty to anticipate risks and societal impacts. How do you balance that responsibility with the risk of overcorrecting—where caution itself might slow or block beneficial innovation?


Pedro Albuquerque: Generally the opposite risk doesn't exist, when it's mentioned it's normally a political narrative in favor of some status quo. The real challenge is not having enough restraint (example, development of nuclear weapons).


EN: Some argue that technology threatens “meaning” in work and life. But isn’t meaning ultimately an individual responsibility? To what extent should technology be held accountable for something so personal?


PA: The effects of technological innovations on our lives are hardly under our control (example: parents are unable to avoid the consequences of Internet misuse on their children, no matter how much they try hard).


EN: There’s concern about “loss of human engagement” in an AI-driven world. How much of that is driven by technology itself, and how much is the result of individual choice and personality differences?


PA: It arguably affects all, some more than others though.


EN: When we talk about “fairness” in the age of AI, what does that actually mean? If technological progress raises overall prosperity, is it inherently problematic if some benefit more than others?


PA: It doesn't necessarily raise overall prosperity, technology is neutral on that. Prosperity in its use is a political choice, not a technological matter.


EN: The discussion often emphasizes “justice” and “equity” in AI outcomes. How do you define those terms in practical ways, especially compared to clear historical injustices like redlining?


PA: Redlining is a good example, technology may be politically chosen to be the instrument of oppression.


EN: We currently see large numbers of unfilled jobs in certain sectors. Could AI and automation actually solve labor shortages rather than displace workers—and how should we think about that distinction?


PA: Again, the outcomes are not driven by technology, but by political choices.


EN: Many discussions focus on what could go wrong with AI. How do you weigh those risks against the possibility that the opposite—positive, transformative outcomes—may be just as likely?


PA: As humans are risk averse, normally risks and damages are the central concern.


EN: There’s a concern that efficiency may come at the expense of artistry or human connection. But in areas like housing or healthcare, speed and scale can meet urgent needs. How should we balance efficiency with human-centered values?


PA: Efficiency can be evaluated both as quality and quantity. Modern societies have been lobotomized by a "quantity over quality" productivist ideology, where what can't be measured or financially evaluated is thrown under the rug.


EN: AI’s energy use is often criticized. How should we evaluate that concern in the broader context of energy innovation—such as nuclear or other emerging solutions?


PA: It's a whole other Pandora box. Let's just say for now that this new technology will put increasing and extreme pressure on a system that's yet unsustainable and under great danger of collapse.


EN: When people talk about “ensuring worker wellbeing” in an AI-driven economy, what does that mean in concrete terms? What should actually be measured or protected?


PA: Another Pandora box, we'd need to ignore economics, which isn't very helpful for these matters, and let the public health and occupational scientists speak. But in the current political and economic systems their voices remain mostly unheard.


EN: AI outcomes are often described as unpredictable. But uncertainty has accompanied every major technological shift. At what point does uncertainty become a reason for caution versus a normal condition of progress?


PA: History tells us we've always done less than optimal in prevention.


EN: Efforts to design “ethical AI” often focus on minimizing inequality. How do you balance that goal with the reality that individuals make different choices and define success in different ways?


PA: Public policies are known to successfully address these matters.

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Download The Future of Work in the Age of Automation: Proceedings of a Workshop on Norbert Wiener’s   https://drive.google.com/drive/search?q=Love%20et%20al 

What Are Your Thoughts on These Things?
Please leave a message in the comments.

Related Links
A Visit with Futurist Calum Chace on his new book The Economic Singularity
https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2016/06/a-visit-with-futurist-calum-chace-on.html

Surviving AI by Calum Chace Is a Must Read for Those Who Plan to Be Here in the Future

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2016/06/surviving-ai-by-calum-chace-is-must.html

Will Computers Put Journalists Out Of Business? Check Out These 7 Stories

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2016/04/will-computers-put-journalists-out-of.html


Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Tech Tuesday: A.I., Robots and Future Impacts of the Tech Revolution

Over the past decade, I've been fascinated by the rapid rise of artificial intelligence and its profound impact on work, creativity, journalism, marketing, and society at large. From early conversations with futurist Calum Chace about The Economic Singularity and Surviving AI, to exploring how ChatGPT is reshaping storytelling and white-collar jobs, I've been tracking AI’s journey from speculative fiction to everyday reality.

In this collection, you’ll find reflections on jobs that AI may soon transform or eliminate, ethical questions surrounding AI-generated art in advertising, the poetic warnings of Richard Brautigan, optimistic predictions from Mark Cuban, and even the possibility of chatbots falling in love. Whether you're concerned about the future of your career, curious about AI’s creative potential, or simply trying to make sense of this technological revolution, I offer these posts as a thoughtful, wide-ranging look at one of the most important stories of our time.

AI Artificial Intelligence

A Visit with Futurist Calum Chace on his new book The Economic Singularity

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2016/06/a-visit-with-futurist-calum-chace-on.html


Surviving AI by Calum Chace Is a Must Read for Those Who Plan to Be Here in the Future

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2016/06/surviving-ai-by-calum-chace-is-must.html


Will Computers Put Journalists Out Of Business? Check Out These 7 Stories

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2016/04/will-computers-put-journalists-out-of.html


The AI Revolution and Marketing (Part One)

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-ai-revolution-and-marketing-part-one.html


What Kinds of Jobs Will Be Lost Due to AI?

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2023/07/what-kinds-of-jobs-will-be-lost-due-to.html


Four ChatGPT Stories with Implications for All

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2023/04/four-chatgpt-stories-with-implications.html


Can ChatBots Fall In Love?

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2023/03/can-chatbots-fall-in-love.html


Tech Tuesday: A.I. Is Already Taking White Collar Writing Jobs. Who's Next?

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2016/08/tech-tuesday-ai-is-already-taking-white.html


Interview with David Asch Offers Insights On A.I.

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2021/10/interview-with-david-asch-offers.html


The Importance of Klara and the Sun For Data Science Workers (by David Asch)

https://medium.com/management-matters/the-importance-of-klara-and-the-sun-for-data-science-workers-2b9768c2d50f


Tech Tuesday: The Future of Jobs (Part One)

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2020/06/tech-tuesday-future-of-jobs-part-one.html


Richard Brautigan's "All Watched Over By Machines Of Loving Grace"

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2018/02/richard-brautigans-all-watched-over-by.html


Tech Tuesday: Two AI Specialists Place Wagers on the Economic Impact of AI

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2017/12/tech-tuesday-two-ai-specialists-place.html


Tech Tuesday: Mark Cuban Predicts AI Entrepreneur Trillionaires

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2017/03/tech-tuesday-mark-cuban-predicts-ai.html


A.I. Art in Advertising: Unethical or Much Ado about Nothing?

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2023/04/ai-art-in-advertising-unethical-or-much.html


Flashback Friday: Will A.I. Finally Solve the JFK Assassination?

https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2024/11/flashback-friday-will-ai-finally-solve.html


Monday, April 10, 2023

Four ChatGPT Stories with Implications for All

AI generated art  based on 
Double D artwork by e.
ChatGPT, the language model chatbot developed by OpenAI, continues to create quite a stir. It is also a work in progress. That is, it uses human feedback (feedback from users) as a means of learning. Because it is trained by data from humans, it has been prone to reflect our human biases. 

In addition to being biased, ChatGPT is also inaccurate at times. It is not connected to the Internet and was trained only up till 2021. Therefore, it can actually get its facts wrong as when I recently asked he/she/it to tell me about the Duluth music scene and the best night spots to hear music. One of the places it suggested had been out of business for a couple years. In other words, verify accuracy or you may end up passing along falsehoods.

The number of people experimenting with ChatGPT is quite remarkable. There were more than one billion visits to the website in February alone. That's pretty amazing since this was only launched in November 2022.

Here are some comparisons to help put ChatGPTs growth into perspective, the amount of time it took to reach one million users:

Netflix: 3.5 years
Spotify:  5 months
Instagram: 2 months
Facebook: 10 months
ChatGPT: 5 days*

Here are a few recent stories that caught my eye. I found the last one especially interesting in light of the note above that ChatGPT is inaccurate at times. 

One story is about the bot's ability to pass a medical exam with flying colors. I am guessing it could also pass the bar with flying colors as well. Will ChatGPT be able to offer legal advice to a team of attorneys hired to defend ChatGPT in the defamation case below.

* * *     

ChatGPT AI lists jobs it can do better than humans 

as millions could be put out of work

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/chatgpt-ai-lists-jobs-it-can-do-better-humans-millions-could-be-put-out-work

OpenAI’s wildly popular chatbot, ChatGPT, is expected to replace 4.8 million U.S. jobs, according to a new report.

Outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas recently asked ChatGPT’s bot a series of questions, including "What jobs can ChatGPT replace?" and in what fields the bot would be most capable of working, according to a press release provided to Fox News Digital. 

RELATED: 
Surviving AI by Calum Chace Is a Must Read for Those Who Plan to Be Here in the Future


AI could go 'Terminator,' gain upper hand over humans 

in Darwinian rules of evolution, report warns

https://www.foxnews.com/tech/ai-could-go-terminator-gain-upper-hand-over-humans-in-darwinian-rules-of-evolution-expert-warns

Artificial intelligence could gain the upper hand over humanity and pose "catastrophic" risks under the Darwinian rules of evolution, a new report warns.


The newest version of ChatGPT passed 

the US medical licensing exam with flying colors 

and diagnosed a 1 in 100,000 condition in seconds

https://www.insider.com/chatgpt-passes-medical-exam-diagnoses-rare-condition-2023-4

A doctor and Harvard computer scientist says GPT-4 has better clinical judgment than "many doctors." 

Australian mayor readies world's first defamation lawsuit 

over ChatGPT content

https://www.reuters.com/technology/australian-mayor-readies-worlds-first-defamation-lawsuit-over-chatgpt-content-2023-04-05/

SYDNEY, April 5 (Reuters) - A regional Australian mayor said he may sue OpenAI if it does not correct ChatGPT's false claims that he had served time in prison for bribery, in what would be the first defamation lawsuit against the automated text service.


Brian Hood, who was elected mayor of Hepburn Shire, 120km (75 miles) northwest of Melbourne, last November, became concerned about his reputation when members of the public told him ChatGPT had falsely named him as a guilty party in a foreign bribery scandal involving a subsidiary of the Reserve Bank of Australia in the early 2000s.

* * *  

*Source: https://nerdynav.com/chatgpt-statistics/

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Tech Tuesday: Two AI Specialists Place Wagers on the Economic Impact of AI


There was a time when ice was "harvested" from lakes and glaciers up in the Rockies (or in Ancient Rome, mined from the Alps), stored in warehouses and distributed through retail channels. Naturally everything changed with the advent of electricity. Ice boxes became obsolete, replaced by refrigerators.

Likewise there was a time when buggy whip manufacturers made decent money, and the horse trade was strong.

Alas, as the cartoon above makes apparent, nothing stays as it was forever.

This weekend I received an email from Calum Chace with the following message:

Robert Atkinson and I have made the 749th Long Bet shown below (and online here). Robert is the founder of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a Washington-based think tank.

Robert’s Claim
With the rise of AI and robotics many now claim that these technologies will improve exponentially and in so doing destroy tens of millions of jobs, leading to mass unemployment and the need for Universal Basic Income. I argue that these technologies are no different than past technology waves and to the extent they boost productivity that will create offsetting spending and investment, leading to offsetting job creation, with no appreciable increase in joblessness.

Calum's Response
AI and robotics are different to past technology waves. Past rounds of automation have mostly been mechanisation; now we will see cognitive automation. Machines can already drive cars better than humans, and their story is just beginning: they will increasingly do many of the tasks we do in our jobs cheaper, better and faster than we can. Unlike us, they are improving at an exponential rate, so that in ten years they will be 128 times more powerful, in 20 years 8,000 times, and in 30 years (if the exponential growth holds that long) a million times. We are unlikely to see the full impact of technological unemployment by 2035, but it should be appreciable. Our job now, of course, is to make sure that an economy which is post-jobs for many or most people is a great economy, and that everyone thrives. The way to do that may well be the Star Trek economy.

Note from Calum: I would like to be able to credit the person who created the excellent image (at the top of this page.) If you know who it is (or if it is you!) please do let me know.

* * * *
Here is the "billboard" that came with the email.  The link takes you to an official site where predictions of all sorts are being documented, along with wagers.


* * * * 
This public documentation of predictions is quite fascinating, especially for futurists. Predictions include how the market will perform to when a computer will pass the "reality imitation game." I doubt anyone can really bet on the prediction about when humans will take over the galaxy, but many of the predictions do look serious.

I'm assuming Chace and Atkinson plan to be here in 2035, when one will have to make good on the bet. At stake, in the bet, is $400, which with inflation may be worth significantly less.

The bet reminds me of another famous bet. Anton Chekov wrote a story called The Bet in which there is a 15 year time frame. With two million dollars at stake there's much more on the line. It's one of my favorite short stories, which I shared here on my blog in 2009.

* * * *
What's your take on the economic impact of AI? The U.S. economy is currently robust, having purportedly added 15 million jobs in 2017. What are the changes high tech will bring as we step forward in time? Who do you believe will win this bet between Mr. Chace and Mr. Atkinson.


Sunday, July 3, 2016

The Economic Singularity: New Book by Calum Chace Designed to Awaken Us to Tomorrow's Perils and Possibilities

“The jobs of the future don’t exist today and the jobs of today will not exist in the future. Technological Singularity will change everything, but its first manifestation will come in the domain of economics, most likely in the shape of technological unemployment." ~Dr. Roman V. Yampolskiy,

Calum Chace is a British futurist whose most recent book, Surviving AI, introduces us to the potential changes that will be wrought by the coming of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The books addresses both the possibilities and perils of the advances currently taking place in the realm of computer technology. After reading Surviving AI we made contact and I was able to interview the author about his newest book, soon to be released, The Economic Singularity.

This book will be eye-opening for those who have not been reading about the economic problems that AI and robotics are likely to produce, if not sooner then eventually. The past fifty years we've been distracted more by the population explosion, the depletion of natural resources, climate change and other potential disasters. Artificial Intelligence and the emerging supercomputers have not really taken up a lot of our worry-time. That is, unless you're a professional futurist working in the area of emerging technologies.

For Calum Chace, this theme is central. As a result he's read widely on the subject and explored a lot of territory that most people have been unaware even existed.

Ben Medlock, co-founder of Swiftkey, states: "Following his insightful foray into the burgeoning AI revolution and associated existential risks, Calum focuses his attention on a nearer term challenge - the likelihood that intelligent machines will render much of humanity unemployable in the foreseeable future."

Interestingly enough, massive unemployment does not have to become a problem, Chace explains, as long as we rethink our social systems and adjust to the new realities of unprecedented productivity gains and abundance.

He lays out the premise of the book up front:

There is a lot of talk in the media at the moment about technological unemployment – the process of people becoming unemployed because machines can do any job that they could do, and do it cheaper, faster and better. There is widespread disagreement about whether this is happening already, whether it will happen in the future, and whether it is a good or a bad thing. This disagreement is natural and inevitable: one of the main features of a singularity is that what lies beyond its event horizon is hard to see. Nevertheless we must try to peer into the hazy future if we are to prepare ourselves for it. In this book I will argue that technological unemployment is not happening yet (or at least, not much), that it will happen in the next few decades, and that it can be a very good thing indeed - if we prepare for it, and manage the transition successfully.

Chace puts the current era of technological change into a historical context, citing the disruption caused by the industrial revolution. The impact of machines on agriculture is vividly demonstrated when you look at the numbers. In 1900 41% of the U.S. was employed in agriculture. By 1970 this was a mere 4%. In Britain farmers are but 1% of the population.

Though machines replaced labor, humans had other capabilities besides muscle. This transition, like many, had challenges but they were for the most part overcome. Chace believes that this time it will be different and he cites various scholars who stand on both sides of this position, that there will be massive unemployment coming, very likely in our lifetimes.

This is one of the strong features of this book. Though he himself clearly has a position on these maters, he takes great pains to quote opposing points of view. Many are pessimistic about the future but there are many equally optimistic.

WE LIVE IN AMAZING TIMES

I myself have written a couple articles stimulated by the film Back to the Future, so it was fun to see this reference here:

We are strangely nostalgic about the future, and we are often disappointed that the present is not more like the future that was foretold when we were younger. 2015 was the 30 the 1985 movie “Back to the Future”, and it was also the year to which the hero travels at the end anniversary of the story. Journalists and commentators complained about the failure of hoverboards and flying cars to arrive, as predicted in the film.

We didn't get hoverboards, but we did get something even more significant. As recently as the late 20 century, knowledge workers could spend hours each day looking for information. Today, less than twenty years after Google was incorporated in 1998, we have something close to omniscience. At the press of a button or two, you can access pretty much any knowledge that humans have ever recorded. To our great-grandparents, this would surely have been more astonishing than flying cars. (Some people are so impressed by Google Search that they have established a Church of Google, and offer nine proofs that Google is God, including its omnipresence, near-onmiscience, potential immortality, and responses to prayer. Admittedly, at the time of writing, there are only 427 registered devotees, or “readers”, at their meeting-place, a page on the internet community site Reddit. lxxviii

New Jobs?

Here's the issue Chace wants us to consider. If machines end up taking most of our existing jobs, can we create new ones? If not, then what? Just because it didn't happen in the past doesn't mean it an't happen in the future. The author proposes that the real solution will have to be a fundamental change with regard to our Capitalist economic structure. Thinking outside the box he suggests that we consider the Star Trek Economy.

Money is not required in Star Trek's United Federation of Planets because energy has become essentially free, and products can be manufactured in so-called Replicators, devices which create useful (including edible) objects out of whatever matter is available.

...The Star Trek economy is the post-scarcity economy, the economy of radical abundance. In their 2012 book “Abundance: the future is better than you think”, Peter Diamandis and Stephen Kotler argue that this world is within reach in the not-too-distant future, thanks largely to the exponential improvement in technology.

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

In chapter five Chace outlines an alternative social structure, built upon a Universal Basic Income and an economy of abundance.

The point of this book so far has been to persuade you that within a few decades, it is likely that many people will be rendered unemployable by machine intelligence. If I have not wholly succeeded in that aim, then I hope you are at least prepared to accept that the possibility is serious enough that we should be thinking about the implications, and what to do about it if it happens. But UBI will not alone be sufficient to enable us to cope with the end of jobs. The other big problem we will have to tackle is cohesion. We will address that later on in this chapter, but first we should review the alleged problem of how people find meaning in a world without jobs.

It's not Marxism or conventional socialism that he's proposing. It's essential that we begin thinking of a new paradigm. Capitalism may not be too well-suited for an economy of abundance, where machines do the work, where most people are unemployed, and where technology is changing the species quickly.

The book is not yet available, but when it hits Amazon.com you'll find it a useful addition to your readings on this important subject. If you're young, it may have a bearing on your career.

Meantime, life goes on all around you. Think about it.

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