From Population Bomb to Ethanol Mandates

Photo by Wouter Supardi Salari on Unsplash

When I was in college around 1970, one of the books that shaped how many thought about the future was The Population Bomb, by Paul Ehrlich. The central fear then was stark and urgent: humanity was growing faster than the planet’s ability to feed itself. Mass starvation, we were told, was not a distant possibility but an approaching certainty unless something changed.

Whether Ehrlich’s predictions would prove right or wrong is beside the point. What mattered was the anxiety that framed the era. Food was precious. Arable land was finite. Population growth threatened to overwhelm fragile systems. Feeding people was the overriding concern.   

Fast-forward a few decades, and the picture has shifted in ways I never would have imagined back then. Today, the world produces more than enough food to feed everyone. And yet hundreds of millions of people remain food insecure, many of them acutely so. Hunger has not disappeared; it has simply become chronic, unevenly distributed, and easier to ignore unless it erupts into crisis.

At the same time, something else has happened—something that strikes me as strange. Vast amounts of productive farmland, particularly in the United States, are no longer devoted primarily to feeding people, but to growing corn that is converted into ethanol. This ethanol is then blended into gasoline—not to replace it, but to dilute it. We are using food-producing land, water, fertilizer, and energy to marginally extend a fuel supply, all in the name of energy independence.

This is where the dissonance creeps in.

I’ve written before about the ethanol debate and the political enthusiasm that surrounded it, especially after the passage of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Ethanol was sold as a clean, patriotic solution to foreign oil dependence. And once embraced, it quickly became politically untouchable. Powerful agricultural and industrial interests ensured that mandates stayed in place, even as questions mounted about ethanol’s true energy balance and environmental benefits.

But step back from the technical arguments for a moment and look at the larger picture. We once worried that there wouldn’t be enough food. Now we grow food to burn it. This is weird to me. 

I don’t mean that as a slogan or a condemnation. It’s simply an observation—one that feels increasingly difficult to square with the world as it is. In many parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, food insecurity is not theoretical. It shapes daily life. It fuels migration, political instability, and despair. And yet it rarely stays in our media spotlight for long. Hunger that is constant does not make for compelling headlines.

What we see instead are debates about fuel blends, mileage standards, and subsidy structures—important questions, perhaps, but questions that often unfold in isolation from broader human consequences.

None of this suggests that biofuels are inherently evil, or that farmers are villains, or that energy transitions are unnecessary. It does suggest, however, that priorities can drift in subtle ways. Policies designed for one moment can harden into assumptions, even when the conditions that gave rise to them have changed.

Perhaps what unsettles me most is not the existence of ethanol mandates, but how little we seem to reflect on their implications.* We live in a world where hunger persists alongside abundance, where farmland feeds engines while people go without, and where the moral weight of those choices is rarely discussed.

Back in 1970, we were taught to fear a future defined by scarcity. Today, the problem looks different. It is not that we lack resources. It's that we struggle to decide what they are for. And that, to my mind, is a far more troubling question.

* * * 

When I considered the title for this post I was tempted to replace the word Mandates with Madness. I left it as is because I didn't want to be accused of having a clickbait title. The topic is too important to be trivial about it.

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IMPORTANT FOOTNOTE

*Another negative feature of blending ethanol into gasoline has to with how it damages small engines due to "phase separation." Phase separation in ethanol-blended gasoline occurs when the ethanol absorbs moisture from the air or environment, causing the fuel to split into two layers: a water-ethanol mixture at the bottom and pure gasoline on top. This happens more readily in humid conditions or during long storage periods.

            The problem for small engines, like those in lawnmowers, chainsaws, or boats, is that the watery layer can corrode metal parts, clog fuel lines, and cause starting issues or engine failure. The separated gasoline lacks octane, leading to poor performance and premature death. Using ethanol-free fuel or specialized additives helps prevent this damage, but you seldom hear anyone talking about this.

Two Things I've Heard All My Life That Don't Make Sense

Even though we're closer to Armageddon than we were 50 years ago, somehow it seemed like the real "Armageddon Fever" took place a half century ago. Maybe it was Hal Lindsey's 1970 bestseller The Late Great Planet Earth that stimulated the subsequent firestorm of pop-Apocalyptic lit. Or maybe it was simply the turbulence of the times--assassinations, Viet Nam, cities burning--that spawned the belief that humanity was doomed.

While Christians were reading about the end of the world and looking for their Lord's return, secular readers were engaged with books like Paul Ehrlich's The Population Bomb and doomsaying by groups like the Club of Rome. And let's not forget the angst generated by the somewhat intangible, though ever present, threat of nuclear holocaust as presented in books like On the Beach and Pat Frank's Alas, Babylon.

From those times to the present I've observed a few statements by pundits that never seem to go away. They may lay dormant for a season or two, but pretty soon they are being recycled again.

The first: In 10 years we will be out of oil.
This declaration was always accompanied by hand wringing about oil running out and the need to cut our dependence on oil. The latter is noble, though when I was young the statement emphasized cutting our dependence on foreign oil. There is so much oil under U.S. soil that you can't even imagine it. For some reason this off limits and that is off limit and those folks should be permitted to use their oil rigs and that pipeline has to be shut.... Bottom Line: It's empty rhetoric.

The real moral of this story is: Repeating silly pronouncements with specific dates or numbers will diminish your credibility

The second: There are too many people to feed. The world can't sustain any more.
In 1960, the population of the world was 3 billion. By 1974 it had grown to 4 billion. As of this moment, August 2023, there are 8 billion people populating our planet. 

Paul Ehrlich's book predicted mass starvation of the global population by the end of the 70s. 

What I remember most is that despite the troubling rise in population, technology was also advancing to make production of food more efficient and human life sustainable.

Now here's what I don't understand. After decades of handwringing about not being able to feed the world population as it grows, these very same people are diverting food crops for ethanol. And they are eliminating cattle in the Netherlands because of flatulence. (Ireland and Canada are pushing 30% cuts as well.) And I just heard that even more cropland is being eliminated for solar panel farms.

What happened to the concern about hunger?

Photo by Jesse Gardner on Unsplash

Sometime around 20 to 25 years ago Popular Science magazine had a detailed breakdown of the costs and benefits of turning corn into ethanol for car fuel. By the time you grow the corn, harvest it, transport it, convert it, distribute it.... There has been absolutely no gain. It uses up as much energy to create ethanol as the net gain from using it. In short, it is a waste.

Here's something else they don't tell you. E-10 gasoline (E-10 means 10% ethanol) can cause damage to small engines if not handled properly. It's too technical for this blog post, but you can look into it. The problem is called "phase separation." 

So what does our Minnesota leadership do? They are now pushing the use of E-15 instead of E-10. Moving forward with ethanol is ridiculous. Lawmakers close their ears to the experts who point out the silliness here. First, ethanol can damage older engines because it is a solvent which can dissolve some of the plastics, metals and rubber components used in older engines. Second, it has a lower energy content than gasoline. The result is lower fuel economy, the exact opposite of the increasingly stringent fuel economy objectives pressed by the EPA through CAFE regs. Third, because ethanol evaporates more easily than gasoline, it can contribute to smog formation. So why is Governor Walz celebrating the increased use of E15?

Why are we decreasing food production to increase production of a form of fuel that is less efficient and creates more smog? Whatever happened to all that concern about not being able to feed the masses?

*

A couple stats about corn in Minnesota. According to the USDA, Minnesota farmers planted 8.5 million acres of corn in 2021. 31% of this corn crop was used for ethanol. That's slightly more than all the acres used for cities, towns and roads in Minnesota. 

*

It's time to take a walk.

September Is Hunger Action Month. Second Harvest Food Bank Has Been Extra Busy This Year

Did you know that the Second Harvest Northern Lakes Food Bank has served over 3 million meals in the last six month since mid-March? With a small staff and a team of volunteers they have done a remarkable job of filling in an important gap... and a lot of empty stomachs.

According to director Shaye Morris's most recent update: Of all the states in the U.S. with the highest projected increase in food insecurity, Minnesota and Wisconsin rank in the top five. A recent report from Feeding America estimates that Minnesota could see as much as a 60% increase in food insecurity, and Wisconsin a 57% increase.*

 For this reason Hunger Action Month is more important than ever.

And you can help. You can be a Volunteer. They’re following recommended guidelines for all of their opportunities to keep everyone safe. As many of their volunteers have returned to work and their elderly have remained at home, the Food Bank needs your support. Find an opportunity that could feed our neighbors in need.

Today Is Hunger Action Day  

This week also marks six months of our COVID-19 response efforts. Community support has ensured more than 3 million meals since mid-March.

Today you can show your support by wearing orange today. Share a photo on social media, and tag Second Harvest at @northernlakesfb using hashtag #HungerActionMonth.

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If you find all this social media stuff complicated, there's always a need for volunteers. Here is web page with details: https://northernlakesfoodbank.org/get-involved/volunteer/

*Food insecurity is the disruption of food intake due to lack of money or other resources.

Worthy Causes: Meeting Needs in Uganda and Haiti

The Unisphere. My friend's father was a welder on this icon of the Fair.

It was a privilege to visit the 1964-1965 New York World's Fair more than a dozen times during its two year interlude in the Big Apple. Every nation, state and corporation put their best face forward in their various ways, striving to make a memorable impression, teach us something about themselves and ourselves while providing visions of a hopeful tomorrow.

The theme inside the Disney Pavilion was reinforced in the song "It's a Small World After All" reinforced in the memorable refrain, "It's a small, small, small, small world."

Over the course of my lifetime it's become apparent how very small this third rock from the sun,  Spaceship Earth, really is. One of my co-workers has travelled abroad at least 40 times during her lifetime. I myself have lived a year each in two countries outside the U.S. and my daughter has been to Europe three or four times, has lived in China 18 months and travelled in Southeast Asia.

With the advent of the Internet in the 90s, three of my short stories were translated into other languages, and through social media the degree of cross-cultural relationship building has become remarkable.

One result of all these communications advances is an increased awareness of the challenges our fellow brothers and sisters abroad have been struggling with. The "news" is no longer mediated by ABC, CBS and NBC. We have direct access to people whose homes are burning in Australia and whose parents have perished from AIDS.

This blog post is about a pair of needs, one in Uganda and one in Haiti.

PEACE*LOVE*HAITI Spring 2020

A barrio in Haiti

Two weeks ago Gaelynn Lea sent me a note about an upcoming fundraiser concert for a Goodwill mission to Haiti. It was my intent to post something about the February 29 concert featuring
The Murder of Crows (NPR Music's 2016 Tiny Desk Contest Winnner Gaelynn Lea & Alan Sparhawk of Low), Katy Vernon, Kyle Ollah, Jerree Small & Four Mile Portage. The concert at Duluth Cider included a silent auction.

Peace*Love*Haiti is a small but mighty group of Duluthians who go to Haiti and provide free/ultra low-cost medical care at least twice a year. Their next trip has been planned for April, and the money raised at this fundraiser will be used for purchasing medications, renting a truck to take them to the rural areas they serve, and hiring an interpreter to assist with communication. This volunteer medical relief team was formed by nurses Tricia Mattson and Julie Zimmerman when they embarked on their first trip to Haiti in 2010 to help after the earthquake. They have been back over 20 times since, providing crisis relief for cholera and after hurricanes, and providing general medical care for people who rarely have seen a doctor in their entire lives.

When I lived in Minneapolis 35 years ago I knew a doctor who was part of a group who went for one month a year to serve needs there. It's actually quite remarkable how many professionals do this kind of work abroad without fanfare.

The concert is now past but you can still contribute here on their Go Fund Me page:
https://www.gofundme.com/f/lacoma-spring-2020-let039s-go


Letter from Uganda

I became aware of Samaritan's Way through a young artist from Uganda who had himself grown up in an orphanage, Steveboyyi Songman. Steve had a way with children and in Uganda frequently helped out at this orphanage. Having worked at an orphanage for a year in Mexico, I understood the challenges and the rewards of this kind of work.

Idah Mehangye did not set out to start a home for orphans, but when her sister and brother-in-law died from AIDS Idah and her husband Henry agreed to take in the two orphaned children. As others learned of their benevolence, more children were brought to be cared for. Today they have more than 40 children to house, feed and nurture.

I sent a small stipend recently and received this kind letter from Idah.

Dear Ed

We would like to thank you for your love and prayers. We truly know that you never forget about us. May God bless you abundantly.

The repairs and refurbishment of our premises are close to the finish. But we are still working in a very clumsy environment.

1. The building is roofed and finished but not yet painted.

2. There are not yet any drawings on the walls, which would be good for the kids while making the place look cool and bright.

3. Some of the swings and playing equipment have not yet been installed again. They are still lying on the ground. They are still waiting for the place to be firm enough in order to have them fixed.

4. The grass has not yet been replanted. The compound is still dirty and dangerous for the kids.

But in all this we are very thankful to God for His Grace and favor. At least we have a roof over their heads. We are very thankful to you for often putting food on their plates. We pray that very soon by and by all things will be in place. We give all the Glory to God.

Once again thank you very much and God bless you.

Hon. Idah

Some of the children at Samaritan's Way in Uganda.

Related Links
Orphanage In Uganda Celebrates Christmas with Our Help
Would You Like to Help Paint an Orphanage? Help Feed Children In Uganda?
A Baby Ripped His Heart Out (A Haiti story)

IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO CONTRIBUTE 

Send me an email: ennyman3@gmail.com

I will put you in touch with Idah. 

100% of what you send will go to Uganda

for the orphanage and children.

You can even contribute via PayPal.

IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO HELP IN SOME OTHER WAYS

besides sending money... Maybe you have ideas

or skills that would help bring awareness, solve a problem.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/attachments/summaries/UG-summary.pdf

The Surprising Scope and Impressive Work of Second Harvest Northern Lakes Food Bank

During the noon hour Thursday I took a tour of the Second Harvest facilities located in the Airpark just off Haines Road near the airport. Though I'd been previously familiar with Second Harvest, having written about their annual Hungry Bowl fund raising events many of the past several years, I had no idea how extensive was their reach, nor how significant their impact.

I remember years ago reading an article about how a shipment of more than 100 million dollars worth of food was delivered to Detroit to address nourishment needs there, but that because there were no mechanisms for distribution it spoiled before helping any humans.

By way of contrast, it's impressive to see the systems Second Harvest has created and established. There seem to be two missions operating in tandem. First, the obvious one, bringing food to hungry and needy people. The less obvious one, which you would learn about on the tour, is its Rescue Mission. Or rather, Food Rescue, doing whatever they can to keep good food from ending up in landfills so that it ends up in peoples' stomachs.

The tour is an educational experience that is given quarterly.

After writing about the programs taking place at Damiano Center earlier this year I was put in touch with Shaye Moris, executive director of Second Harvest. I love their slogan: Fighting Hunger / Feeding Hope. Shaye suggested that I attend one of their quarterly tours, which I was eager to do.

There were about a half dozen of us on yesterday's tour, including two people from Life House, someone from Whole Foods Co-op and a fellow from Anchor Point Church. We were also joined by a couple of folks from the Northern Harvest team. Ms. Moris led the tour, which began with the first "Aha!" moment. 2nd Harvest is not a food shelf. It is a Food Bank. It is the largest, and only, food bank in the region. Second Harvest belongs to a network of 200 other food banks in the U.S. designed to efficiently acquire and distribute food to eliminate hunger.

One facet of their labors could be compared to a rescue mission, rescuing food from retail partners so it isn't wasted. Did you know that 27% of the food in this country gets thrown away? And sometimes it's as high as 40%.

Managing food is 80% of the work of the Food Bank, distributing it to 180 different food programs, soup kitchens, food shelves and other programs. It's a massive undertaking and real needs are being met every day.

Another "Aha" was learning how vital it is to stay in touch with government regulations and the stringent health standards set by the USDA, OSHA, etc. There are baking audits, label requirements and other legal matters that the 17 staff embers of Second Harvest must stay current on.

Another insight was learning how important volunteers are to Second Harvest. If you want to become a volunteer for a cause that is making a real difference, you might want to visit their website and learn how.  Volunteers provided 15,000 hours of service last year, which made a tangible difference in fulfilling their aims, which include nutrition assistance programs for seniors (NAPS), for kids (BackPack Program), the Mobile Food Pantry and for the region's food shelves.

For the record, Second Harvest does have a Food Shelf here at the Airpark, open on Tuesdays, but the facility's primary function is being a Food Bank and Food Rescue operation. (25 volunteers help operate the food shelf there on Tuesdays.)

It's interesting how much thought has gone into every aspect of the operation. For example, it used to be that each of the various organizations that fed the poor (CHUM and Damiano Center, for example) would call on stores and restaurants to acquire goods before they were thrown. The result was a lot of inefficiency as multiple places were calling around, and lots of time consumption would be the result. Second Harvest, therefore, became a middleman, a food broker of sorts, so that a grocery store doesn't have to field 21 calls a week. Instead, it's one call that takes care of all.

Food distribution is an expensive part of feeding people in all countries, and in this case Halvor Lines has been helping mucho by providing $25,000 a year of donated transportation. Second Harvest services an 18,000 mile region from Hurley to Ely and points west, picking up or delivering food, so this kind of generous help is really appreciated here.

Our tour took us through the freezer (ten below) and the refrigerated room as well as 24,000 square feet of storage. Some of the sources for all this food include the hospitals, universities, grocery stores and more. Some food is picked up and delivered straight off the truck.

There are no federal, state or local government funds being used here. 100% of the operation is funded by donations, hence a big piece of the work involves fund-raising since the overhead for all this is 1.9 million dollars per year.

* * * *

Second Harvest Northern Lakes Food Bank is a 501(C)3 charitable non-profit and is the largest hunger-relief organization in the Northland. Each year we rescue and distribute over 5.8 million pounds of nutritious food, enough food for 4.7 million meals, to approximately 44,000 people in need.

Special thanks to Shaye Morris, Erin Makela and all the Second Harvest staff who helped get us more informed and for making time to share their passion with the wider public.

If you want to Rescue Food and Feed Families, or simply learn more, visit https://northernlakesfoodbank.org/ 

Eating Words Won't Satisfy Hunger

A couple years ago I made several blog entries regarding the world famine crisis. In one of those blog entries I used the phrase "idiot legislators"... which for many is a relatively mild accusation, but in my case it feels unkind to be so harsh. At the time I felt a need to write a response to what I had written, which I am reprinting here. Put yourself in their shoes. What would you be doing right now about the energy issues and economic challenges and international food supply issues our world currently faces? Personally, I do feel that efforts to convert farmland from food production to energy production can be easily labeled idiotic. When people make stupid decisions, this does not mean they are stupid people. A lot of smart people make stupid decisions. I have made my share. This does not mean I am a stupid person. When I jumped out of a moving car, for example, it was a stupid thing to do. I still aced most of my tests in school. So, as I eat my words I'm noticing that there's not a lot of nutritional value in words. If there were, we could have our printing presses do overruns on every job to feed the hungry. Words in abundance would pour forth from our shores. We're already bombarding the world with words through radio, and other media. And here I am pushing out more words through my fingertips onto computer screens potentially visible around the globe. At the end of the day, an empty tummy needs food, not words. I myself do not have an answer to this crisis since I myself do not have the facts. My hope is that those who have all the facts will be able to sort things out and make decisions based on truth. What we don't need is for moneyed interests to determine national policy for personal gain. It is in this sense that I do not always trust our legislators. We cannot lose sight of our global interdependence. Have a nice weekend. Just a little food for thought.

Of Conflict and Poverty

Could we still fight for peace if our army did not exist?

I woke with that thought today. It was from the dream I was having, which evaporated without a trace while the thought lingered.

Will we ever have peace in this lifetime? Like poverty, the underlying forces (or is it over girding structures?) creating conflict are neglected.

The irony is that instead of working for peace, many just accept conflict as a given so why fight it? This is essentially a fatalistic acceptance of Necessity as a final value. That is, what is is, and we must resign ourselves to it.

But when we turn to hunger and poverty, do we just accept it as a given? Is Necessity right? Jesus said "the poor you will always have with you" so do we just let it be?

According to Simon Scharma, that is exactly what the British did on two significant occasions. During the Irish potato famine, there were some in the government who argued that the government should not intervene, that when God had accomplished His will He would bring an end to the famine. A few decaders later the identical argument was used to remain at arm's length during mass starvation in colonial India.

What madness.

One of the influential writers in my personal life from the century now past was Jacques Ellul, a French lawyer, pastor and author of more than forty books. Ellul had studied Marx before his conversion to Christianity. He had seen his father imprisoned and die at the hands of the Nazis. He experienced first hand injustice and saw much that we in America only read about in World War II France. His own strongest personal influences were Luther, Kierkegaard and Karl Barth, whose dialectical approach led him to abandon Calvinism.

Here are a two passages from an essay called A Synopsis and Analysis of the Thought and Writing of Jacques Ellul by James Fowler. The first paragraph is a direct quote from Ellul regarding being in the world but not of it. Ellul's influence in my personal views has been immeasurable.

"The Bible tells us that the Christian is in the world, and that there he must remain. The Christian has not been created in order to separate himself from, or live aloof from the world. ...if the Christian is necessarily in the world, he is not of it. This means that his thought, his life, and his heart are not controlled by the world, and do not depend upon the world, for they belong to another Master. Thus, since he belongs to another Master, the Christian has been sent into this world by this Master, and his communion with his Master remains unbroken, in spite of the 'world' in which he has to live."...the Christian finds that he is not confronted by the material forces of the world but by its spiritual reality. Because he is in communion with Jesus Christ he has to fight not against flesh and blood but against 'the principalities, against the powers, against the world-rulers of this darkness.' At the same time this communion assures him that he does not belong to the world, that he is free from the fatality of the world which is moving towards death, and, as a result of this liberation by grace, he can fight against the spiritual realities of the world."

A little further along Fowler writes:

Ellul's thesis is that the natural man is incapable of seeing the spiritual reality in which he is struggling (cf. I Cor. 2;14). He only sees the surface issues of social, political and economic problems, and he attempts to work and find solutions with the methods of technique, and in accord with moral standards. The world of modern society is not capable of preserving itself or of finding remedies for its spiritual situation. The more so-called "progress" man makes, the more he is aware of the inadequacy of human solutions, which all fail, one after another, and only increase the difficulties in which he lives.

For the complete essay, a great introduction to this perceptive man, check it out here. Today, what are you doing to make a difference?

Food Crisis Update

It sure is nice to wake up in the morning with a refrigerator full of food. That's a luxury not experienced by a large portion of our world. Let's not take it for granted.

This is my weekly periodic update on the current state of hunger in our world. The causes vary, but the consequences are the same. Children suffer and die from malnutrition that makes them vulnerable to disease. Here are three countries with serious issues even as we speak. (or rather, as I speak, since I occasionally talk out loud when I am writing.) The situations in these three countries were highlighted in a Minneapolis Star article this week.

North Korea: People are possibly starving to death as food rations continue to be slashed. The army of more than a million stopped military exercises in order to help raise crops. After three years of non-assistance, the U.S. is resuming food aid, which experts predict will arrive too late. An estimated 200,000-300,000 people may starve to death without aid, according to sources in Seoul.

Somalia: Because of deteriorating conditions and armed conflict, as well as rising global food and fuel prices, plus severe drought, the country is experience a serious crisis.

Ethiopia: According to the article, "Ethiopia's top disaster response official said 4.5 million Ethiopians need emergency food aid, about a million more than thought."

The irony is that much of the aid that is provided to these nations and their communities is doing more damage than good. Sometimes free food arrives and the local farmers who have worked to grow crops lose out because they cannot sell their food. In other words, the blessing is disruptive and while making food available for some it hurts the livelihood of others.

In other situations, there are U.S. mutual funds whose investors profit from the hardships caused by the food crisis. The mutual funds loan money to local people, but at exorbitant interest rates. The "free money" seems at first to be just what the poor family needed, but these people often do not understand the fine print associated with this "generous" loan. The damage is heart rending, though U.S. investors feel good because their money is being used to fund organizations purportedly helping the world's needy to get them on their feet.

Add to these challenges the problems of political corruption, deep seated hatreds, violence and despair... and you have a bad brew. The people living in the world's shadows have much to overcome. Step one is enough nourishment to survive another day. But this is only step one. The need is far more vast... and deeper.

For information on how to help make a small difference in the war against hunger, visit Farms International
"Doing Good That Is Good."

There's Nothing Funny About Ug99

I have been writing about the world hunger crisis this past week since our dinner with Joe and Pat Richter of Farms International. What caught my attention was the food riots in fourteen countries. And nary a word in our newspapers.

Once you start to look, the picture looks less than promising. Can too much knowledge be a bad thing? I would like to believe that the only way we can begin to fix things is by knowing how broken they are.

My brother forwarded the following article to me about a killer strain of black stem rust that destroy wheat crops called Ug99. One of the articles I read last week made reference to this wheat disease as one of the variables in a "perfect storm" of trouble brewing, which also included the decision to fight global warming by making food crops into ethanol.

Don't take my word alone. Do a Google search on the topic and you'll see it's serious.

Ug99!

“Ug99” is the name given to a strain of wheat fungus (Puccinia Graminis). This virulent new form of the disease first appeared in Uganda in 1999. It is spread by wind and now is responsible for driving up food prices.

It appears that the present genetic composition of wheat has little or no resistance to this new fungus strain. In some areas of the globe, crop losses are expected to reach 100%. In Africa there are known experiences of loss of over 70%. The economic losses expected from this fungus are now estimated in the many billions and growing. Worse there is an intensifying fear of exacerbated food shortage in the poor and emerging countries of the world. The ramifications are serious.

Food rioting continues to expand around the world. We saw the most recent in Johannesburg last week. So far this unrest has been directed at rising prices. Actual shortages are still to come. Remember: food shortages can cause changes in governments and can lead to severe repression of populations. Also, remember that the food chain starts with grains. All grains are under severe price pressure and the ability of substitution is shrinking because there is no surplus grain inventory to replace one in short supply.

Governments are responding with protectionism and tax policy modification of export-import taxes and tariffs. Typically they reduce the import taxes so as to lower the domestic price of incoming grains and foodstuffs. At the same time they raise the export taxes in order to keep homegrown foodstuffs within the country. In some cases they actually embargo exports. These tariffs and embargoes end up only adding to trade barriers, reducing global efficiencies and ultimately only raising the prices for everyone. Such actions have already occurred in Argentina, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Morocco, Peru, Russia, Turkey, Venezuela, Zambia, and others.

The world’s mature and wealthier countries are food exporters as a result of developed and efficient agriculture. Australia, Canada, European Union, New Zealand and the United Sates are in that category. But these countries have taken little advance action in the face of the increasing global food imbalances. The US Agriculture Department reports global grain stocks at half century lows.

America’s bio-fuel policy is worsening the situation. We have a huge subsidy in place for corn-based ethanol. That is raising and has driven up the price of corn. There is no end in sight for that subsidy and, thus, the upward corn price pressure is imbedded for all practical reasons. Ethanol is American politics at its very worst.

In addition it seems that the new form of wheat fungus has risk to America’s wheat crop. Present American wheat has very little resistance to Ug99. It will take between five and eight years to genetically engineer a resistance. In the interim period, US agriculture now faces this higher risk of fungus.

As with bird flu (H5N1), North and South America have been spared from Ug99 to date. And as with bird flu, the professional epidemiologists are worried just as the rest of us go about our daily lives taking things for granted. Complacency is always the enemy.

Meanwhile, Ug99 is windborne and on its ways to the breadbaskets of Asia. And meanwhile, H5N1 is avian borne and spreads globally. The most recent human case was confirmed in Egypt on April 17th. So far, H5N1 virus is still a bird disease and not efficiently transmitted among humans. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports 30 confirmed cases and 23 deaths, year-to-date in 2008.

USED WITH PERMISSION

Copyright 2008, Cumberland Advisors. All rights reserved.
The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors, 614 Landis Ave, Vineland, NJ 08360 856-692-6690. This report has been derived from information considered reliable but it cannot be guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, email: david.kotok@cumber.com

www.cumber.com

For information on Farms International, visit http://www.farmsinternational.com/

"Doing Good That Is Good."

Eating Words Won't Won't Satisfy Hunger

This past week I made several blog entries regarding the world famine crisis that is unfolding. In my most recent entry I used the phrase "idiot legislators"... which for many is a relatively mild accusation, but in my case it feels unkind to be so harsh. Put yourself in their shoes. What would you be doing right now about the energy issues and economic challenges and international food supply issues our world currently faces?

Personally, I do currently feel that efforts to convert farmland from food production to energy production can be easily labeled idiotic. When people make stupid decisions, this does not mean they are stupid people. A lot of smart people make stupid decisions. I have made my share. This does not mean I am a stupid person. When I jumped out of a moving car, for example, it was a stupid thing to do. I still aced most of my tests in school.

So, as I eat my words I am noticing that there is not a lot of nutritional value in words. If there were, we could have our printing presses do overruns on every job. Words in abundance would pour forth from our shores. We're already bombarding the world with words through radio, and other media. And here I am pushing out more words through my fingertips onto computer screens potentially visible around the globe.

At the end of the day, an empty tummy needs food, not words.

I myself do not have an answer to this crisis since I myself do not have the facts. My hope is that those who have all the facts will be able to sort things out and make decisions based on truth. What we don't need is for moneyed interests to determine national policy for personal gain. It is in this sense that I do not always trust our legislators.

We cannot lose sight of our global interdependence.

Legislative Idiocy: An Inconvenient Truth

In 1901 there was an automobile wreck in Kansas. The amusing thing about this wreck is that there were only two cars in Kansas at the time. I guess there were no stop signs at that intersection. The sad part is that someone was probably killed.

This is where politicians are so good. They quickly realize that something has to be done, and they step right in, flex their muscles and pass a new law. The 1901 law stated that you had to stop your car every mile and shoot a flare up into the sky so that other cars would know you were approaching.

The story is true. And the tendency of politicians to take action, even when absurd and ignorant, shows no signs of going away any time soon.

Examples are legion. It appears that things are going to get worse before they get better because we somehow seem incapable of learning from the past. Can the leopard change his spots?

Phillip V. Brennan, in an article titled Global Warming Hysteria Creates Food Shortages, notes that "at this very moment, the world is plunging into a food scarcity crisis that is the direct result of the global warming hysteria. The headlong rush to grow food crops to make ethanol instead of growing crops to feed the world is pushing food prices skyward and creating the threat of famine in Third-World countries."

The more I read, the more amazed I am that our leaders are so spineless so as to be swept up in this global warming hysteria. It should not surprise me. I've many times read that politicians inside the Beltway are more concerned about staying in tune with public opinion than with facts about Reality. As is historically their natural bent, the laws legislators pass will be more destructive than helpful, despite their earnestness.

Many nations that used to export rice are now holding back and even banning exports. Countries dependent on these foods are already experiencing riots. Some newspapers are printing that the hunger and upheaval caused by the current passion for ethanol, and subsequent food shortages, could result in World War III. This is no joke.

How alarmed should we be here in the States? Well, it's your call, but in many places they are already rationing certain foods.... in the U.S.A.

Global Food Crisis No Longer Under the Radar

In the early 1990’s the festering unrest between Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda went pretty much unreported. Violence, fear and exodus festered under the surface for years. The only thing that made the news here in the U.S. was the tragic slaughter of some of Jane Goodall’s favorite gorillas. Then in 1994 all hell broke loose. Hutus no longer concealed the savage slaughtering of Tutsis. There were literally rivers of blood.

Somehow if it doesn’t make the network news, we’re able to achieve some modicum of blissful unawareness. Unfortunately, the world’s suffering is not alleviated so easily.

A global food crisis is upon us. Food riots have broken out in at least fourteen countries, and untold numbers of people are literally starving to death.

The causes are many and no one measure will resolve the whole of it, but a bit of awareness is required if we are going to see things turn for the better. Here are just a few of the symptoms and causes, in no particular order of importance. Sources include Janet Tu’s “Region’s aid groups grappling with global food crisis” (Seattle Times) and Anthony Faiola’s “Global Food Prices and Africa’s Economic Famine”, transcript from an online chat.

Organizations like World Vision and Farms International, whose ministries and services are directly focused on helping the Third World needy, are especially attuned to the crisis. Joseph Richter, Executive Director of Farms International, brought the seriousness of the crisis to our attention yesterday. Currently there are food riots in fourteen countries, he said. The causes are complicated. Chief of these are rising fuel prices, the conversion of crops to corn for ethanol, the greater demand for meat in China and India, and draughts in two other breadbaskets, Australia and Russia.

In Anthony Faiola’s “Global Food Prices” piece, the journalist fielded questions from around the world. One question drew attention to the increased crop substitution that is taking place in order to produce ethanol. Faiola replied, “Thanks for the good question. One of the big problems is crop substitution. As corn prices increased because of biofuel demand, some farmers shifted production from consumption crops such as wheat, soy beans, etc, to capitalize on the high prices for corn. It has helped link prices for these grains together, one reason they are shooting up at the same time.”

The situation is worsening at an alarming rate because of simultaneous setbacks on so many fronts along with the rising prices. Americans who wish to contribute to a trustworthy organization that is doing real good in this area, with bare minimum overhead, can find a worthy conduit at Farms International.

Ethanol and the World Food Shortage

Over the years I’ve often observed and noted that the food crises in most countries are not due to lack of capability, but from political decisions. It turned out that the starvation in Ethiopia a few decades ago (we all saw ads featuring children with bloated bellies, but without explanation of causes) was due to Communists deliberately starving the people into submission. There is plenty of capacity to feed everyone in the world. Our political and economic systems prevent the poor and starving from obtaining their daily sustenance.

Tragically, we are today experiencing tremendous upheavals in food production, primarily due to our own political interventions. The intentions may be good on the part of legislators, but the ramifications have not been thought through, even though they appear obvious to many. The decision to convert huge portions of U.S. farmland from food production to ethanol/energy production is a vivid example of the law of unintended circumstances, as the following article outlines.

"Silent Famine" Sweeps Globe

WASHINGTON – From India to Africa to North Korea to Pakistan and even in New York City, higher grain prices, fertilizer shortages and rising energy costs are combining to spell hunger for millions in what is being characterized as a global "silent famine."

Global food prices, based on United Nations records, rose 35 percent in the last year, escalating a trend that began in 2002. Since then, prices have risen 65 percent.

Last year, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization's world food index, dairy prices rose nearly 80 percent and grain 42 percent.

"This is the new face of hunger," said Josetta Sheeran, director of the World Food Program, launching an appeal for an extra $500 million so it could continue supplying food aid to 73 million hungry people this year. "People are simply being priced out of food markets. ... We have never before had a situation where aggressive rises in food prices keep pricing our operations out of our reach."

The WFP launched a public appeal weeks ago because the price of the food it buys to feed some of the world's poorest people had risen by 55 percent since last June. By the time the appeal began last week, prices had risen a further 20 percent. That means WFP needs $700 million to bridge the gap between last year's budget and this year's prices. The numbers are expected to continue to rise.

The crisis is widespread and the result of numerous causes – a kind of "perfect storm" leading to panic in many places:

* In Thailand, farmers are sleeping in their fields because thieves are stealing rice, now worth $600 a ton, right out of the paddies.

* Four people were killed in Egypt in riots over subsidized flour that was being sold for profit on the black market.

* There have been food riots in Morocco, Senegal and Cameroon.

* Mexico's government is considering lifting a ban on genetically modified crops, to allow its farmers to compete with the United States.

* Argentina, Kazakhstan and China have imposed restrictions to limit grain exports and keep more of their food at home.

* Vietnam and India, both major rice exporters, have announced further restrictions on overseas sales.

* Violent food protests hit Burkina Faso in February.

* Protesters rallied in Indonesia recently, and media reported deaths by starvation.

* In the Philippines, fast-food chains were urged to cut rice portions to counter a surge in prices.

* Millions of people in India face starvation after a plague of rats overruns a region, as they do cyclically every 50 years.

* Officials in Bangladesh warn of an emerging "silent famine" that threatens to ravage the region.

According to some experts, the worst damage is being done by government mandates and subsidies for "biofuels" that supposedly reduce carbon dioxide emissions and fight climate change. Thirty percent of this year's U.S. grain harvest will go to ethanol distilleries. The European Union, meanwhile, has set a goal of 10 percent bio-fuels for all transportation needs by 2010."

A huge amount of the world's farmland is being diverted to feed cars, not people," writes Gwynne Dyer, a London-based independent journalist.

He notes that in six of the past seven years the human race has consumed more grain than it grew. World grain reserves last year were only 57 days, down from 180 days a decade ago.

One in four bushels of corn from this year's U.S. crop will be diverted to make ethanol, according to estimates."

Turning food into fuel for cars is a major mistake on many fronts," said Janet Larsen, director of research at the Earth Policy Institute, an environmental group based in Washington. "One, we're already seeing higher food prices in the American supermarket. Two, perhaps more serious from a global perspective, we're seeing higher food prices in developing countries where it's escalated as far as people rioting in the streets."

Palm oil is also at record prices because of biofuel demands. This has created shortages in Indonesia and Malaysia, where it is a staple.

Nevertheless, despite the recognition that the biofuels industry is adding to a global food crisis, the ethanol industry is popular in the U.S. where farmers enjoy subsidies for the corn crops.

Source: The "Silent Famine" Copyright 2008, WorldNet Daily

Helping the Hungry

"The best sauce in the world is hunger. That is why the poor always enjoy eating." ~ Cervantes

As I read Don Quixote I am continually amazed by how many ideas and witticisms have become part of the public vernacular by this 400-year old-yarn. For example, at the beginning of Book Two in this classic, they are debating the merits of the second book being written about Don Quixote, "for you know, the sequel is never as good as the original." It cracked me up. This is a statement we have been making about movies for years. But who among you, reading this, would have believed that this is a statement people have been making for centuries?

The quote I referenced about hunger is similar. Usually we make the first half of the above statement. The latter has a grimmer aspect. In point of fact, being poor and hungry is not fun at all.

Having lived in Mexico for a year when much younger, I came to believe that all Americans would benefit by having exposure to the third world for a period of time while young. In this manner, we would more fully appreciate the wealth and opportunities we have in this country.

As for doing something about world hunger, I don't think people should be guilted into giving. On the other hand, I do believe empathy is a normal part of being human, Therefore, it is incumbent upon each of us to in some manner attempt to make a difference to help those in need if able.

The problem is, we're a bit jaded as well, because most of us have read stories about unscrupulous people who manipulate this good will in other peoples' hearts in order to extract cash from their wallets. We live in an era of mailing lists where people who give to one organization end up getting requests from other organizations. Even when organizations mean well at the start, there can be mismanagement resulting in squandered resources instead of the dollars being directed where they will do the most good.

For this reason, I've tried to help direct people to an organization that I trust because I knew the founders personally. They helped Susie and I when we were working at an orphanage in Mexico (1980-81). You can follow their work at Hungry Kids International. 


 
Because of the immensity of need in our world, some people's whole lives are devoted to making a difference. They are the unsung heroes of our time. You can make a difference, too.