An Oil Insider Talks About the Future of Oil

Photo by Zbynek Burival on Unsplash

Industry consultant Steve Swedberg has over 50 years experience in the lubricant industry. In addition to being a featured columnist for Lubes 'N' Greases magazine, he is a longtime member of the American Chemical Society, ASTM International and SAE International (Society of Automotive Engineers), where he was chairman of Technical Committee 1 on automotive engine oils. I reached out to Mr. Swedberg in order to gain insights with regard to the future of oil.

EN: Some people believe the internal combustion engine defeated electric cars 110 years ago by means of a power play. It’s my understanding that gasoline powered engines are the most efficient way to produce energy. What really happened in the early days of automobiles as regards electric vehicles?

Steve Swedberg: While electric-powered cars were very popular in the early 20th century, internal combustion engines finally won out because they were reliable, had a much longer range, and were easy to mass produce. Once the electric starter was introduced and the number of vehicles grew, gasoline became so much cheaper that electric couldn’t compete. That’s still the case but other factors are driving the move to electric powered cars.

EN: For most of our lives two of the major driving forces in the auto industry have been reducing emissions and reducing fuel usage. It’s only been more recently that electric cars have become potentially viable. What are the biggest drawback to electric cars replacing gasoline powered vehicles?

SS: The biggest drawbacks are the infrastructure to supply electricity, and the cost of batteries that will supply enough charge density to give driving ranges equal to internal combustion engines.

EN: To power electric cars requires energy. What is the current breakdown in the U.S. as regards how energy is produced?

SS: The total electricity produced in the U.S. is about 4000 Billion kWh. That’s 4X1015 kWh! The breakdown by source is as follows: Natural Gas 32%, Coal 30%, Nuclear 20%, Hydroelectric 7.4%, Wind 6.3%, Solar 1.3%, Wood 1.0%, plus several other minor sources including landfill gases all are at about 2%.

EN: Ever since the late 60’s prognosticators have babbled on about how we only have ten years of oil left in the world. The same is still being piped to us today. What is the truth regarding the world’s oil supply?

SS: In 2014 BP said we have 53 years of reserves. However, it seems like the more we find the more we are able to capture. There are fields that still have lots of oil. The old Pennsylvania fields in Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia still hold upwards of 70% of the estimated reserves. It will take a unified field (one run by only one operator) to develop it more thoroughly but it could happen in the future. Hydraulic Fracturing or “fracking” can get to and extract a lot of this old, heavy crude.

EN: As for emissions, are there any statistical breakdowns with regards to the ratio of emissions generated by air transportation, shipping and automotive? I suppose you could add factories to that.

SS: That’s a good question. What I’ve come to find out is that industrial emissions are about 20%, electrical generation is about 25% and transportation is 15%. The remaining 40% is from natural sources such as agriculture (cows and methane), volcanos, forest fires, etc.

Thank you, Steve, for the data and insights.

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Related Links
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Of Knights White and Dark

Up front, the reason I am writing about knights today is that I did this picture of me as The Dark Knight. Laugh, please, because it's intended to be comic. (You may click to enlarge.)

As for chivalry and knights-errant, I have always enjoyed the whole idea of knighthood. As a kid one of my favorite coloring books was Crusader Rabbit. As a college student I was taken up with Don Quixote by way of the musical Man of La Mancha. During my tenure at AMSOIL, where I am employed in advertising and PR, I have seen my role as something of a white knight, doing battle against the forces of darkness.

An aside: There are many cynics who believe that the foundation of advertising, and inherent in the job, is a need to lie. Like lawyers, admen are tarred as dishonest hucksters. What I have always believed is that if you have to lie to sell a product, then you should not be in that situation. Or at least, you should strive to exit that position as quickly as feasible.

For those unaware, AMSOIL makes synthetic motor oils and performance products. Their claim to fame is being the first synthetic motor oil to satisfy American Petroleum Institute service requirements. In addition to being the first synthetic oil for cars, they were also first to recommend a 25,000 mile one year drain interval. The company has done that since its inception 35 years ago.

Imagine how many fewer oil cans and bottles would be in our landfills if for the past 35 years everyone changed their oil but once a year. The oil industry, on the other hand, likes having people change their oil frequently. For more than a decade major oil companies have gone out of their way to fight extended drain intervals. For years we've all heard that you're supposed to change your oil every 3,000 miles. Is that really because frequent oil changes are in the best interest of the consumer? I have in my file a 2001 quote from the president of Jiffy Lube International saying that if they could get people to change 100 miles sooner, Pennzoil would make 20 million more dollars. In addition, "If we could move our customers to make one more oil change per year, it's worth $294 million for the oil change alone and $441 million in revenue, when you include ancillary products and services." (Lubricant's World, Sept. 2001, p. 30)

So it is that the little company I work for is jousting with behemoths for whom bottom line profits are the primary driver, not truth or what is in the best interest of the consumer, or the earth for that matter.

The irony is, however, that even though I feel like a white knight, and our company has true environmentally beneficial solutions, if you get into a throng of really Green folks, I am a leper because I'm part of an oil company. "Oil companies are bad, green is good."

Add to that the popularity of seeing business people in a somewhat negative light, and the corporate guy that I am can also be perceived as "bad" in many sectors simply by virtue of my wearing a suit to the office every day. Hmmm.

Well, this might be where the Dark Knight comes in. His motivations are good, but in the end we see he is just a human trying to do the best he can. He's playing a role that in some way fits who he is. And like the comic book hero and Cervantes' Quixote I, too, am just trying to do the best I can within the context of our postmodern environs. If occasionally the giants I'm fighting are windmills.... well, so be it.

Here are a couple of links to articles I've published related to the environment and ethics.