An Oil Insider Talks About the Future of Oil

Photo by Zbynek Burival on Unsplash

Industry consultant Steve Swedberg has over 50 years experience in the lubricant industry. In addition to being a featured columnist for Lubes 'N' Greases magazine, he is a longtime member of the American Chemical Society, ASTM International and SAE International (Society of Automotive Engineers), where he was chairman of Technical Committee 1 on automotive engine oils. I reached out to Mr. Swedberg in order to gain insights with regard to the future of oil.

EN: Some people believe the internal combustion engine defeated electric cars 110 years ago by means of a power play. It’s my understanding that gasoline powered engines are the most efficient way to produce energy. What really happened in the early days of automobiles as regards electric vehicles?

Steve Swedberg: While electric-powered cars were very popular in the early 20th century, internal combustion engines finally won out because they were reliable, had a much longer range, and were easy to mass produce. Once the electric starter was introduced and the number of vehicles grew, gasoline became so much cheaper that electric couldn’t compete. That’s still the case but other factors are driving the move to electric powered cars.

EN: For most of our lives two of the major driving forces in the auto industry have been reducing emissions and reducing fuel usage. It’s only been more recently that electric cars have become potentially viable. What are the biggest drawback to electric cars replacing gasoline powered vehicles?

SS: The biggest drawbacks are the infrastructure to supply electricity, and the cost of batteries that will supply enough charge density to give driving ranges equal to internal combustion engines.

EN: To power electric cars requires energy. What is the current breakdown in the U.S. as regards how energy is produced?

SS: The total electricity produced in the U.S. is about 4000 Billion kWh. That’s 4X1015 kWh! The breakdown by source is as follows: Natural Gas 32%, Coal 30%, Nuclear 20%, Hydroelectric 7.4%, Wind 6.3%, Solar 1.3%, Wood 1.0%, plus several other minor sources including landfill gases all are at about 2%.

EN: Ever since the late 60’s prognosticators have babbled on about how we only have ten years of oil left in the world. The same is still being piped to us today. What is the truth regarding the world’s oil supply?

SS: In 2014 BP said we have 53 years of reserves. However, it seems like the more we find the more we are able to capture. There are fields that still have lots of oil. The old Pennsylvania fields in Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia still hold upwards of 70% of the estimated reserves. It will take a unified field (one run by only one operator) to develop it more thoroughly but it could happen in the future. Hydraulic Fracturing or “fracking” can get to and extract a lot of this old, heavy crude.

EN: As for emissions, are there any statistical breakdowns with regards to the ratio of emissions generated by air transportation, shipping and automotive? I suppose you could add factories to that.

SS: That’s a good question. What I’ve come to find out is that industrial emissions are about 20%, electrical generation is about 25% and transportation is 15%. The remaining 40% is from natural sources such as agriculture (cows and methane), volcanos, forest fires, etc.

Thank you, Steve, for the data and insights.

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