Is Britain on the Verge of Civil War?

This week, Unherd published a story by Alex Poots titled Is Civil War Coming for Britain? This came on the heels of recent news stories I'd seen on X about Birmingham being overrun with rats the size of cats. The initial accounts made me think it was simply a city problem. Birmingham's trash collectors were on strike. 

Poots' account showed that Birmingham's trials were symptoms of much more serious problems. He begins by citing a professor at Kings College London, David Betz, who believes a civil war is coming.

In recent decades there has been a decline in what is considered normalcy. Like the proverbial frog that sits comfortably in a pan of water slowly being brought to a boil, we accept the societal decay because it is occurring so incrementally. (Ultimately, it's a boiled frog.)

And what is it that is happening? According to Poots:

Betz works with larger themes. Falling living standards and a dearth of well-paid jobs create an “expectation gap”, seeding resentment and apathy through whole generations. The creeping normalization of identitarian factionalism across British life, both daily and political, weakens our ability to function as a coherent nation. Unprecedented levels of immigration produce growing anxiety in the majority population, an anxiety that may metastasize into something darker. Finally, and perhaps most damningly, Betz brings up a rising crisis of government legitimacy: “The primary thing to be tested is legitimacy. If you have legitimacy, you have no insurgent problem. If you don’t, you are very likely to have an insurgent problem. It’s as simple as that.”

* * * 

Predicting the future can be a lot like reading tea leaves. When it comes to old, used cars, we know that sooner or later it will likely happen, but you don't know when. Also, with a car, it usually boils down to a decision as to whether a needed repair is worth fixing. The car still runs but the hassle factor diminishes the reliability as well as the joy of owning it.

Nations are much different. There are so many variables at play. 

When we lived in Mexico in 1981, Mexico City was on pace to become the most populated city in the world. It was reported that 10,000 people were arriving every week and that by the end of the century the population would be 30 million. The was a limit, however, to how many people could be absorbed into this sprawling city, in part due to the desirability and in part due to the strain on resources.

What's happening in Britain is alarming, but is this island nation on the ropes? The signs of decay are evident, but what does this mean? Keep in mind that most of what we know is mediated to us. Often by people who have an agenda.

I do believe we need to be paying attention, though. It won't be a civil was like the one the divided the United States in the 1860s, with armories, armies, artillery and generals. There are some who envision an eruption of violence in urban centers, with riots, looting, and clashes between groups with opposing views (e.g., far-right groups versus minority communities or counter-protesters). Like the George Floyd protests, the real battles will take place after dark. It may be that unfolding events won't be recognized as a civil war at first.

Am I taking this all too seriously? I don't know. I'd planned to end with a joke here to lighten the mood, but it bombed.