Is Britain on the Verge of Civil War?

This week, Unherd published a story by Alex Poots titled Is Civil War Coming for Britain? This came on the heels of recent news stories I'd seen on X about Birmingham being overrun with rats the size of cats. The initial accounts made me think it was simply a city problem. Birmingham's trash collectors were on strike. 

Poots' account showed that Birmingham's trials were symptoms of much more serious problems. He begins by citing a professor at Kings College London, David Betz, who believes a civil war is coming.

In recent decades there has been a decline in what is considered normalcy. Like the proverbial frog that sits comfortably in a pan of water slowly being brought to a boil, we accept the societal decay because it is occurring so incrementally. (Ultimately, it's a boiled frog.)

And what is it that is happening? According to Poots:

Betz works with larger themes. Falling living standards and a dearth of well-paid jobs create an “expectation gap”, seeding resentment and apathy through whole generations. The creeping normalization of identitarian factionalism across British life, both daily and political, weakens our ability to function as a coherent nation. Unprecedented levels of immigration produce growing anxiety in the majority population, an anxiety that may metastasize into something darker. Finally, and perhaps most damningly, Betz brings up a rising crisis of government legitimacy: “The primary thing to be tested is legitimacy. If you have legitimacy, you have no insurgent problem. If you don’t, you are very likely to have an insurgent problem. It’s as simple as that.”

* * * 

Predicting the future can be a lot like reading tea leaves. When it comes to old, used cars, we know that sooner or later it will likely happen, but you don't know when. Also, with a car, it usually boils down to a decision as to whether a needed repair is worth fixing. The car still runs but the hassle factor diminishes the reliability as well as the joy of owning it.

Nations are much different. There are so many variables at play. 

When we lived in Mexico in 1981, Mexico City was on pace to become the most populated city in the world. It was reported that 10,000 people were arriving every week and that by the end of the century the population would be 30 million. The was a limit, however, to how many people could be absorbed into this sprawling city, in part due to the desirability and in part due to the strain on resources.

What's happening in Britain is alarming, but is this island nation on the ropes? The signs of decay are evident, but what does this mean? Keep in mind that most of what we know is mediated to us. Often by people who have an agenda.

I do believe we need to be paying attention, though. It won't be a civil was like the one the divided the United States in the 1860s, with armories, armies, artillery and generals. There are some who envision an eruption of violence in urban centers, with riots, looting, and clashes between groups with opposing views (e.g., far-right groups versus minority communities or counter-protesters). Like the George Floyd protests, the real battles will take place after dark. It may be that unfolding events won't be recognized as a civil war at first.

Am I taking this all too seriously? I don't know. I'd planned to end with a joke here to lighten the mood, but it bombed. 

Throwback Thursday: Cuernavaca

The post here was written on this date in 2008. At that time I didn't know that I would be publishing my young adult novel on Kindle three years later. What I do know, and knew then, is that I had many rewarding memories of my year south of the border and one of my favorite places there was the city of Cuernavaca on the southern slope of the high altitude mountain that supports Mexico City.  (Cuernavaca itself is nearly a mile above sea level, hence its comfortable spring-like temperatures year-round, despite its proximity to the equator.) 

Among other things in life, I have taken a stab at writing a novel. The setting for part of the story was Mexico, having lived there a year and having become enthralled by its magic. The Red Scorpion is its working title.*

Last night I came across a disk with some of the slides I took in Mexico that year. Over the next few days I'll try to share some of the images here. The people and places of Mexico, and the accompanying memories, will always have a special place in my heart.

What follows is the beginning of my story.

Chapter 1
He woke abruptly, jostled to alertness by the screech of brakes and final recoil as the bus jerked to a stop. He was surprised to find that he had managed to fall asleep at all. The crowded bus included peasants with chickens, crying babies and a crush of people from all stations in life.

Dr. Comstock, glancing out the window, was dismayed to find the bus had not yet reached its destination. It was picking up more passengers, even though the aisle was now full. Several villagers squeezed up onto the steps, some hung out through the doors which had been left open. The bus lurched forward, gears grinding.

A small boy eating a mango placed a sticky hand on the rail in front of Comstock’s knee. Comstock smiled at the boy, but the boy turned his face away. Comstock was a stranger and a foreigner. The boy had been trained not to trust him.

Once more the bus screeched to a stop. This time he could see they had arrived. It was the last leg of his journey, descending to Cuernavaca from the high altitudes of Mexico City. He was eager to begin his work.

Dr. Comstock, a professor of anthropology at the University of Minnesota, had come to Mexico to locate the final resting place of Quetzlcoatl, the plumed serpent of Aztec legend. This was Comstock's second research expedition in Mexico. He intended to develop contacts that would enable him to obtain funding for a longer trip the following year. It was Christmas break back home at the University. He could think of nothing better than being in Cuernavaca. While arctic winds chilled the Minnesota countryside, flowers remained perpetually in bloom here in the land of Eternal Spring. Red and coral bougainvillea, lavender jacaranda, flaming poinciana, and golden geraniums splashed the air with color and fragrance. The floral tapestry delighted his eyes in every direction that he looked.

His wife Adele had wanted to join him, but he balked at the idea. Her presence would interfere with his work, he said. He promised she would accompany him on next year’s trip if they could find caretakers to run the Eagle’s Nest, the bed and breakfast they owned and operated.

Comstock had an angular face with deep set eyes and thick, dark eyebrows. He wore his hair cropped short. He felt he looked too British to pass for Mexican, though occasionally it worked out that way because he tanned easily and well.

Exhausted from the journey and relieved to have arrived at all, he carried his baggage the two blocks from the bus station to the hotel.

click on photos to enlarge

*The hotlink for the book was obviously not in the original post, since the book did not yet exist at that time.

Did you poop today?

This picture was taken in a stairwell at a college student’s home off campus in Morris, MN. I took the photo because it is undeniably funny.

I didn’t know what I’d say about it until yesterday when I learned that the recession is having a negative impact on toilet paper sales. In point of fact, Tom Falk the Chairman-CEO of Kimberly-Clark stated that their toilet paper sales were down 5.5% since last quarter. Nationally, the hard times have reduced toilet paper sales by more than 8%.

So, it begs the question… what are people doing in there? I don’t mean to be nosy, but…

In truth, toilet paper is something Americans pretty much take for granted. We like it soft and we like plenty of it, an estimated 1.5 miles of it a year. But have you ever considered that toilet paper is really a fairly modern luxury? Or wondered what they do in the rest of the world? Most of us probably give it very little thought.

I remember a story about a new hospital that was built by the Red Cross in the Middle East, perhaps Jordan or somewhere near Yemen. A week after the hospital was built, all the toilets were inoperable. They were all filled with smooth stones. Dirty ones, if you know what I mean. This is how people clean themselves in many places.

If you are a missionary to or traveler in Islamic countries you might be instructed, as part of your training, to not hand something to Muslim with your left hand because that is the hand you use for this very personal business. Just a little travel tip here in case you’re eating veal in Turkey and someone asks you to pass the pilaf.

When I lived in Mexico, we visited Mexico City and stayed with a couple poor families in that overpopulated village of 20-some million. No one had toilet paper in many of these places. In point of fact, no one has running water in most of Mexico City. The water is in short supply, so they turn it on for 90 minutes every other day. During that ninety minutes you are to fill your 55 gallon drums for the next two days’ supply. Using this water, you can flush toilets, wash dishes, make orange juice, bathe, or whatever your heart desires. I took a bath with about one pint of boiled water in an outdoor stall while it was approximately 40 degrees.

Well, needless to say, no one had toilet paper. Rather, they stacked newspapers in the corner of the outdoor bath room which after reading they used for that more intimate purpose. Mexico City news is printed on surprisingly thin paper and not entirely uncomfortable, if you catch my drift.

While thinking about these things, and looking for an additional anecdote to go with it I discovered that there are a number of books written on the topic for those who might be discreetly interested. Frankly, I find it amusing how little we talk about this delicate topic, or others pertaining to normal body functions such as passing gas or sweating.

Of the books I found, the most interesting dealing with “Number 2” seems to be Dave Praeger’s Poop Culture: How America is Shaped by its Grossest National Product. According to Publisher’s Weekly, Praeger “meticulously excavates the politics of poop, societal attitudes toward it and how both affect our culture and everyday lives. Propelled by a keen nose for trivia, Praeger chronicles everything from the rise in epidemics that led to better sanitation practices, culminating in the widespread adoption of the toilet, to the use of feces in art.” In short, it appears to be a serious, well-researched work of history and not simply cheap potty humor.

But if you really want to dive into this subject and you’re hungry for more, Praeger also has a website called PoopReport.com, though in many circles this kind of thing is in bad taste.

This is a topic about which much more could be written, but I think we've had enough for one sitting.

Lennon Muerte

December 8, 1980. I was standing on the Zocalo in Mexico City, a large open plaza in front of the palatial government buildings there. The day sky blue, and I a stranger in a strange land, stood there taking it all in.

Surrounding the square there were newspaper & magazine stands, much like those one sees in the streets of New York. And as I walked to my left toward the vendor stands, every one of them was filled with newspapers displaying photos of the Beatles. This seemed so strange until the headline registered. Lennon Muerte. Lennon dead.

I stood gaping, the news failing to register. Perhaps the era of innocence had long past, but this brought it forcefully home. John Lennon's music connected with a generation, and one theme he was especially fond of was the appeal for peace. For Lennon, the only way to obliterate bad karma was through love, not violence.

I was in the midst of a three week trip to Mexico City with a Bible school choir from the orphanage. For a moment I forgot myself, remembering this man's influence. Here is a link to a collection of anecdotes by others who have remembered that moment, where they were, how it moved them when the learned of his passing.

As we prepare for the Christmas season, perhaps it is suitable to share this message from the Beatle known as John.

So this is Xmas
And what have you done
Another year over
And a new one just begun

And so this is Xmas
I hope you have fun
The near and the dear one
The old and the young

A very Merry Xmas
And a happy New Year
Let's hope it's a good one
Without any fear

And so this is Xmas (war is over)
For weak and for strong (if you want it)
For rich and the poor ones (war is over)
The world is so wrong (if you want it)
And so happy Xmas (war is over)
For black and for white (if you want it)
For yellow and red ones (war is over)
Let's stop all the fight (now)

A very Merry Xmas
And a happy New Year
Let's hope it's a good one
Without any fear

And so this is Xmas (war is over)
And what have we done (if you want it)
Another year over (war is over)
A new one just begun (if you want it)
And so happy Xmas (war is over)
We hope you have fun (if you want it)
The near and the dear one (war is over)
The old and the young (now)

A very Merry Xmas
And a happy New Year
Let's hope it's a good one
Without any fear
War is over, if you want it
War is over now

Happy Xmas

More Numbers

My September 23 entry on Numbers got good reviews, so I looked forward to the next slow news day as an excuse to assemble another list of numbers. Every picture tells a story, they say. Some numbers tell pretty vivid stories as well.

$9.6 Billion

Amount of money Warren Buffet has lost in his investment holdings in 2008.

$52 Billion
Current value of Warren Buffet’s holdings.

$3 Billion
The current value of Rupert Murdoch’s holdings after losing $3.9 billion in 2008.

1500
Number of employees Yahoo last week announced they will lay off.

7200
Number of workers Merck is laying off in its current restructuring.

24
Number of megacities over eight million in 2004.

1
Number of cites of this size in 1950.

300,000
Population of Lagos in 1950.

13,500,000
Current population of Lagos, Nigeria.

193,800,000
Number of Chinese currently living in urban slums.

35,600,000
Number of Pakistanis currently living in urban slums.

84.7
Percentage of population of Bangladesh living in slums.

5.8
Current percent of U.S. population living in urban slums.

99.4
Percentage of Ethiopians living in slum conditions.

200,000
Estimated number of slum communities in the world today.

4
Number, in millions, of people living in Mexico City’s largest megaslum in 2005.

320
Number of children per thousand who die before age five in Luanda, Angola.

34
Number of inner city slums in Karachi, Pakistan.

66
Number of Karachi slums on the city’s periphery.

107,000
Number of people evicted from slums in Hong Kong in 1950.

In addition to the problems of overcrowding, inadequate access to safe water and sanitation, the poor must deal with the constant insecurity of not owning their homes. In recent years, enforced evictions by the State have caused untold disruption in countless lives. Here are some numbers from a few famously awful slum evictions of the past two decades.

1988 ~ Seoul, Korea… 800,000
1990 ~ Lagos, Nigeria… 300,000
1995-96 ~ Rangoon, Burma… 1,000,000
1995 ~ Beijing, China… 100,000
2001-03 ~ Jakarta, Indonesia… 500,000
2005 ~ Harare, Zimbabwe… 750,000
2007-08 ~ Beijing, China… 350,000

Less than 300
Number of toilet seats available to the 480,000 people in 1100 Delhi slum settlements.

Sources
Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2008.
Planet of Slums, Mike Davis
Elements of a slum for the purposes of this report: Overcrowding, poor or informal housing, inadequate access to safe water and sanitation, and insecurity of tenure.