The Power of Anticipation: Unlocking Greatness in Sports, Business, and Life

About 15 years ago I spent some time thinking about the attributes of greatness in athletes. Is there a common denominator in great hitters, great infielders, great goalies in soccer or hockey, great quarterbacks in football and great race car drivers. And is there a way to apply this attribute to the way we run our own businesses so that they, too, rise above the herd and exhibit greatness?

Aaron Rogers, Creative Commons
Photo by Mike Morbeck

Let’s start with football. One chapter in Brian Billick’s More Than A Game addresses the challenge of picking first round draft picks during the football draft, and in particular the near impossibility of predicting whether a quarterback will succeed in the pros after an outstanding college career. A full fifty percent of all first round picked quarterbacks fail to live up to their potential. Why is this? At time I was writing this in 2009 I'd been watching Aaron Rogers of the Green Bay Packers who was having another stellar season. What was Rogers doing that lesser quarterbacks were not?  

In baseball, what made Derek Jeter a superstar? It wasn’t just charisma. How did a great hitter like Albert Pujols snag a ten-year contract worth more than a quarter billion dollars. How about goalkeepers in soccer, or the National Hockey League? What do the best do that the rest do not? What about champion race car drivers? At the NASCAR level they all have to be good. Is there a quality that sets the best apart from the rest?

 

There are undoubtedly many qualities that contribute to success, but one in particular that seems especially common to all is the ability to anticipate. Alertness, focus, anticipation. Here’s an excerpt from a blog called Axon Potential which deals with the mindset of athletes. 

Based on athletes’ reports and technology that tracks their eye movements, we know that athletes anticipate what’s coming next by focusing only on the most relevant cues in an opponents’ movement pattern. And that this skill changes and becomes refined with training. The eyes of novices are all over the place, whereas athletes’ focus is much more targeted and economical. Across a number of different sports, expert athletes demonstrate similar “visual search strategies”. Their eyes focus on fewer targets, jump around less, and they stay focused for longer periods of time than do the eyes of novices.

This is a fascinating concept because in a world filled with a gazillion pieces of information flying at us from all directions, how do we process it all? The key for Aaron Rogers when he faces down eleven defenders has more to do with which information not to process, and identifying the right cues so as to obtain the most effective result. Crowd noise and stunt maneuvers by defensive linemen are all distractions. Perhaps the success in a scoring touchdown pass revolves around what he sees in a single linebacker’s eyes.

Goalkeepers in soccer and hockey operate in high-stakes, high-speed environments where anticipation is critical. A soccer goalkeeper facing a penalty kick or a hockey goalie stopping a slapshot must predict the shooter’s intent based on subtle cues—body position, head tilt, or stick angle. The best goalkeepers don’t just react; they anticipate, positioning themselves a fraction of a second ahead of the play. Their refined visual search strategies allow them to focus on these cues while ignoring irrelevant distractions, such as crowd noise or feints, resulting in more consistent saves.

In NASCAR, where all drivers are skilled and cars are closely matched, anticipation is what separates the champions from the rest. Elite drivers anticipate track conditions, competitors’ moves, and even split-second changes in aerodynamics. They read the race’s flow—knowing when to draft, pass, or conserve fuel—by focusing on critical cues like a rival’s line or tire wear. Like other athletes, their ability to process only the most relevant information in a high-speed, high-pressure environment gives them an edge.

The concept of anticipation as a critical attribute of greatness in athletes across various sports but has relevance for our own lives far outside the arena. The principle of anticipation, as seen in elite athletes, has profound applications in business. Just as athletes filter out noise to focus on critical cues, business leaders must navigate a world overflowing with data, market trends, and competing priorities. The ability to anticipate—whether it’s market shifts, customer needs, or competitive moves—can elevate a business above the herd.

In practice, this means developing a disciplined focus on the most relevant signals. For example, a CEO might anticipate industry trends by focusing on emerging customer behaviors rather than getting lost in short-term financial metrics. A startup founder could prioritize a few key performance indicators (KPIs) that predict long-term growth, ignoring less impactful data. Like Aaron Rodgers ignoring crowd noise, business leaders must filter out distractions—such as media hype or irrelevant industry fads—to make strategic decisions. 

Moreover, anticipation in business involves preparing for multiple scenarios. Just as  goalkeepers position themselves before a shot, businesses can use predictive analytics or scenario planning to stay ahead of disruptions. For instance, companies that anticipated the rise of e-commerce or remote work before 2020 gained a competitive edge. By focusing on the right cues—customer preferences, technological advancements, or economic indicators—businesses can position themselves for greater success, much like elite athletes.

In our personal lives, anticipation can transform how we approach challenges and opportunities. Just as athletes focus on what matters most, individuals can achieve greater success by prioritizing meaningful goals and filtering out distractions. For example, in a world of constant notifications and social media noise, anticipation means identifying what truly aligns with your values and tuning out the rest. This might mean setting boundaries, like limiting screen time, to focus on high-impact activities, such as learning a new skill or deepening connections.

Anticipation also applies to emotional and mental resilience. By recognizing early signs of stress or burnout—subtle cues like irritability or fatigue—you can take proactive steps, such as practicing mindfulness or adjusting workloads, before problems escalate. Like a NASCAR driver reading the track, anticipating life’s challenges allows you to navigate them with greater control and confidence.

Ultimately, the ability to anticipate is a learnable skill that requires practice, reflection, and discipline. By training ourselves to focus on the most relevant cues in our environment—whether in sports, business, or life—we can rise above the ordinary and achieve greatness. Just as Aaron Rodgers, Derek Jeter, or a champion goalkeeper hones their craft through targeted focus, we can cultivate anticipation to make smarter decisions, seize opportunities, and lead extraordinary lives.

Where's the focus of your life right now? 

Impediments to Sustained Attention

Several decades ago, while walking quietly through an old growth deciduous forest in Pennsylvania, I stopped to contemplate a chirping sparrow which was flitting from branch to branch in a young elm tree. The little bird hopped from this branch to that, chirped a few times and flitted to another.

This hopping about captured my attention so that I stood there quietly observing for the longest time. For some reason, and I know not why, it entered my head that my own thought life was like this little bird, flitting from this topic to that, bouncing about almost aimlessly, momentarily intent on this idea then leaping to another intense interest, ever flitting here and there, from this thought to another unrelated branch of thought.

What was the meaning of this? This was long before I'd ever heard the concept of ADHD, attention deficit disorder. And, the pattern has not really diminished all that much.

This Appalachian mountain memory was brought to mind by a lecture on Optimizing Brain Fitness by Professor Richard Restak in which he lists a set of impediments to sustained attention. These impediments, he stated, were:
1) Boredom
2) Emotional blunting or burn out
3) Sensory overload
4) Multitasking

The word that leapt from this list for me was multitasking, though each of the other items contribute to our inability to maintain focused attention for a sustained period of time. Prof. Restak says we are not really multitasking when we multitask, because our mind doesn't really do two things at once. We are flitting back and forth between the two.

Have you ever been to a party where you get introduced to new people but later can't recall their names? Once again it's a matter of focus. Our minds may be focused on "managing the room." Or we're distracted by everything else going on. If it is a business meeting, someone may hand you their card and later, if you wrote a note on the back, you will remember who the person was. That act of writing a note required a moment of focus.

In this lecture he also talked bout how to learn new material. Rote memorization is possible for short term quizzes, but long-term value is created when we involve ourselves more deeply in the information, by writing a paper about the topic for example.

"The most important principle for improving your memory is focusing your attention on what you are trying to learn." This is why disruptive behavior in a classroom is such a problem. It distracts other students and interferes with their ability to focus.

This morning I posted a story in response to a California decision to forbid suspensions in K thru 8th grade. In School Daze: Whats's Going On I took a walk down memory lane to my own grade school experiences in which I can't recall a single suspension taking place throughout my elementary school years in the 1950s and early 60s. Were there any students suspended for bad behavior in junior high when I moved to New Jersey? My memory may be faulty but in those days students listened to the teacher, obeyed when told to spit out their gum, and showed respect.

On one occasion my 5th grade teacher asked me (told me) to not put my pen in my mouth, which I did quite frequently evidently. I liked the taste of the metal, I think. At least that is what I said in the 500 word essay I had to write (as punishment) explaining why I kept putting my pen in my mouth.

As I look back over the meandering direction this blog post has taken, it's apparent I've lost my focus. And rather than drag you with me any further, let's turn the page.

Till next.

Extra Credit: What was your experience in elementary school? When and where?

Is There a Relationship Between Suffering and Achievement (Two Books and an Intro to TapRoots)

I'm not really sure whether it's chance or an alignment of the stars, but within a couple days I've been introduced to three people whose personal experience of suffering led to producing insights that they were moved to share with others. Most interestingly, the insights they share are not about their suffering at all. Rather, their experiences served as a catalyst, resulting in profound insights that can help each of us toward a better life.

Two of these people became authors. The third has developed a website and "game" of sorts that has the aim of teaching us lessons for life.

1.

James Clear, Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones
Clear's book cover announces its basic premise: Tiny Changes, Remarkable Results. The book description goes on to say, If you're having trouble changing your habits, the problem isn't you. The problem is your system. Bad habits repeat themselves again and again not because you don't want to change, but because you have the wrong system for change. You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems. Here, you'll get a proven system that can take you to new heights.

It's an interesting approach. It avoids blaming the reader for his or her failures and affirms the good intentions while focusing on what has to change.

Because I've been reading another good book on business strategy by Richard Rumelt, James Clear's message to individuals resonates. Success is not by trying harder or sheer willpower, but through using a better strategy.

Author James Clear didn't develop his ideas through reading but through experience, hence its power. As a teen with a passion for baseball, not unlike myself, he had the horrendous experience of having a baseball bat smash his face, shattering skull and facial bones. The process by which he came back from the induced coma to ultimately performing again at a high level is remarkable, and the basis for his understanding of how to build a new life

2.

Winifred Gallagher, Rapt: Attention and the Focused Life
Gallagher's book likewise begins with a difficult hurdle, all too common and familiar to most of us who have been around a while. Cancer. Like Atomic Habits, I am only near the beginning, and like Clear's book the intro spells out what she went through to attain her understanding of new psychological terrains.

In Gallagher's book the lessons revolve around the power of focus, and how the mind works. It's insightful and once more relevant to living a fulfilled life, especially in a world filled with distractions. Gallagher doesn't let us off the hook, however. If we get distracted by television, social media and whatever else we allow to pull us in all directions, she doesn't blame these other things. She simply puts it to us to think differently and assume responsibility for what we choose to deem important.

3.

Phelan, founder of 500 BC Foundry
The founder's story begins with her daughter's cancer. If I've said it once I've said it a hundred times: No parent should have to bury their child. Phelan's commitment to seeing her daughter through this trial led to many insights. An app called TapRoots is the results.

The motto here is: You owe it to yourself to get to know yourself. Knowing oneself is essential to a great life. Knowing oneself precedes "To thine own self be true." How can you be true to yourself when you are oblivious to who you are.

What Phelan discovered was that the insights from antiquity remain relevant today. This understanding led her to seek a way to share these insights via a new medium, in the tech-infused world we now live in, using the tools of our contemporary culture. The end result was TapRoots, a game of self-discovery.

In ancient times, people used sharpened flint as a tool. Today we have apps devoted to transferring the wisdom of the ages into our present seeking minds. That's what TapRoots is all about.

* * * *
Good things seem to happen in threes. I was surprised at this third one. It seemed like I'd discovered something interesting that was in sync with a recent awareness of the importance of mindfulness. For the past 35 years there's been an urgency to life, driven by the notion of hustle, speed, push, make things happen. It's almost as if the objective is burn-out.

After a good friend of mine was laid off a couple years back I was surprised at how his new interest was 180 degrees opposite of the rat race. He's lost interest in this deal, and was on a new path, toward a greener pasture, beside still waters. He didn't use this word but it was the same: mindfulness.

* * * *
For what it's worth, I like what I've seen of 500 BC Foundry and TapRoots. I'm interested in what they are attempting to do. And it may be the right timing for this because there are so many distraction now to take us away from who we are. How can you be to thine own self true if you don't even know who you are?

So, I'm playing a new game, just to see where it goes. If you want to play, to be part of it, here's where you can learn more... and be part of a contemporary game that can potentially make a difference in your life.

#GalacticGiveawayShares   
Sign up to get cool rewards at 500 BC Foundry and by doing so, my rank will improve. 

* * * * 
I started by saying that I would introduce three people. I actually only met them though what they have created, and the last I don't even know (yet) by name, just her handle. I did, however, decide to enter the Galactic Giveaway, and spread some roots. Where it will lead I have no idea, but I will keep you posted.

Meantime, enjoy the onset of Spring and make the most of your day.