It Takes a Lot of Courage to Be a Contrarian

In a world that rewards conformity, being a contrarian isn't just bold—it's downright heroic. Picture this: You're in a boardroom. An idea is proposed that is clearly off the wall, but to your surprise one by one everyone around the table affirms that this is a good idea, nodding along in agreement. When it's your turn, do you zip it or say, "Wait, this is silly." Or, more tactfully, you suggest that they are pros and cons to everything and you suggest there may be another way to look at this.

Hearts race, eyes narrow. Why? Because challenging the status quo demands courage—the kind that separates visionaries from the herd. 

History is littered with contrarians who reshaped our world. Galileo stared down the Inquisition, insisting the Earth orbited the Sun, not vice versa. He faced house arrest, yet his defiance made a significant contribution to modern astronomy. 

Fast-forward to 2008. Michael Burry, the investor immortalized in The Big Short, bet against the housing market when Wall Street laughed him off. Labeled a lunatic, he profited billions while the economy crumbled. Or consider Rosa Parks, whose simple refusal to move sparked the Civil Rights Movement. These weren't reckless rebels, brave souls who put something on the line to go against tradition.

So, why does contrarianism require such guts? First, the social sting. Humans are wired for belonging. Dissent risks isolation, mockery, or (in our social media age) worse—cancellation. Second, there's a personal toll. Doubt creeps in when you're the lone voice. Self-doubt whispers, "What if I'm wrong?" Or perhaps the more common response, "Is this my line in the sand? Is this an issue I want to be a martyr for?"

It's challenging to stand alone, and sometimes costly. See (or read) Ibsen's An Enemy of the People.

When others are hugging the status quo, being contrarian can be the driving force of innovation. Steve Jobs bucked the trend of button-heavy phones with the iPhone, turning Apple into a trillion-dollar titan. Warren Buffett thrived by zigging when others zag, famously advising to "be fearful when others are greedy."

Being contrarian isn't about being difficult—it's about integrity. It takes courage to question echo chambers, whether in politics, business, or daily life. (Where are the individualist voices in the GOP or Dem parties? What is all this unapologetic party lockstep alignment about?) 

As for courage, yes, it's necessary. Why do we hold back? Someone once said courage is like a muscle that is strengthened with use. And like a virus, it's contagious.

Embrace the discomfort. The world needs more contrarians—not to divide, but to elevate us.  

Illustration: A Gemini 2.5 modified version of one of my doodle drawings.

Here We Go Again? Margot Robbie in a Bubble Bath to Explain What Happened When the Housing Bubble Burst

Have you seen The Big Short? I'm talking about the movie based on the book by Michael Lewis. All too often movies fail to live up to the vivacity sparked by the book. The Big Short is an exception.

Adam McKay wrote the screenplay and directed this remarkable film. Brad Pitt played a role in the film, delivered an important line and also produced the film.

For most Americans economics is a mystery, especially when it comes to Wall Street. Stocks, junk bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, options, derivatives, tranches, yield, moving averages, short squeeze... the lingo is so esoteric that the average clam on the street is clueless.  

Even when we don't know what things mean, we're all impacted by them when the shakedown comes. The tech bubble bruised a lot of peoples' investments and the housing bubble created pain all the way down into the trenches where many Americans exist day to day.

The Big Short was an exceptionally creative means of explaining what happened during the collapse of the housing market. It doesn't really tell the entire story, such as how mechanisms were created to help people who couldn't afford homes were shoehorned into properties that were beyond their means. That is, there was pressure placed on banks to make mortgage loans that exceeded their typical tolerance for risk

Needless to say, the film does a good job of showing how Wall Street insiders were clueless to what was really going on, and paid a price for it.

Early on in the film the director inserts Margot Robbie in a bubble bath, sipping wine, to explain subprime mortgages. 

Basically, Lewis Ramieri's mortgage bonds were amazingly profitable for the big banks. They made billions and billions on their 2% fee they got for selling these bonds. But they started running out of mortgages to put them in. After all, there are only so many homes and so many good jobs to put them in. So the banks began filling these bonds with riskier and riskier mortgages. That way they can keep that profit machine churning, right? By the way, these risky mortgages are called subprime. So whenever you hear "subprime" think "sh*&".

Our friend Michael Burry found out that these mortgage bonds which were supposedly 65% AAA were actually just mostly full of sh*&. Now he's going to short the bonds. Which means 'bet against.'

Got it? Good.

"Let me tell you how it is."

FWIW, Margot Robbie is an actress from Australia who played Tonya Harding in I, Tonya. She's also played Mary Queen of Scots and Sharon Tate in other films I've seen, though I never knew her name.

My interest in seeing this film (I've seen it several times already and read the book) was chiefly driven by the mess we're seeing right now in global markets and on Wall Street. I know that some people believe it's all a big conspiracy, that wrecking the economy is intentional. Somehow my personal feeling is that the decision makers are in over their heads. Things are simply too complicated today and the law of unintended consequences lurks behind every move.

There are a lot of stars in this film. The casting is superb. Christian Bale, Brad Pitt, Ryan Gosling and Steve Carell are the primary heavies, but even the most incidental character is perfect.

As a final note (knowing much more can be said), I also enjoyed the music score, especially Led Zeppelins When the Levee Breaks which summed up the film as the final credits rolled.    

Again, if you've not see this film, I recommended it highly. It's both entertaining and insightful. 

Ever ready to upset applecarts.